CANADA (17 February)
The relatively small winter wheat crop for harvest in 2003 has already been sown and the area is estimated at a record high of 400 000 ha, 67 percent up from last year, in response to the high wheat prices last autumn. Early indications for the main spring crop to be sown later this year also point to a sharp increase in the area sown by about 7 percent. Assuming weather conditions return to normal this year, there will also be a significant reduction in the rate of abandonment and a recovery in the average yield. As a result, the overall area of wheat harvested in 2003 could be as much as 25 percent up from that in 2002, and production could be up by about 60 percent. Production of coarse grains is also expected to increase in 2003, recovering from the drought-reduced level in 2002. However, for all cereals, the actual seeded area will depend largely on spring precipitation, as subsoil moisture levels are reported to remain low across much of the main producing areas.