CHINA (18 February)
The output from the late season rice crop, recently harvested, is officially estimated at 36 million tonnes of paddy, some 9 percent lower than production in 2001/02 mainly due to a reduction of the area sown. Similar decrease was reported for production of the early rice crop, estimated at 31 million tonnes. These reduced outputs were only partially offset by an increase in the output of the intermediate main crop by four percent, to a level of 108.5 million tonnes. As a result, the aggregate paddy production in 2002 is estimated at 177.5 million tonnes, or 121.7 million tonnes of milled rice, fractionally lower than the previous year and some 9 percent below the average of the five previous years.
The prospects for the 2003 winter wheat to be harvested from May are unfavourable as a result of late planting, some 5 percent decrease in the area sown and an earlier than usual dormancy. Thus, production of winter wheat is estimated to decline, for the fifth consecutive year, by some 3 percent to 80.6 million tonnes. Production of coarse grains in 2002, mainly maize, is estimated to be less than previously reported due to a reduction of one million tonnes for the maize output on account of lower than expected production in the provinces of Shandong, Jilin, Hebei and Shanxi. Output from the 2002 maize crop is estimated at 124.2 million tonnes. However, this level of production is still higher by 10 million tonnes than the previous year. Thus the aggregate grain production in 2002 in China was 402.2 million tonnes or about 1 percent higher than the previous year. Reflecting this good crop and high export prices, the 2002/03 exports of maize are expected to increase from the level of 8.6 million tonnes exported in the previous year.