MALAWI (28 February)
Prospects for the 2003 cereal crops, to be harvested from April, are favourable so far. This reflects overall good rains during the cropping season and substantially higher agricultural input availability.
The start of the rainy season was delayed by almost one month in the maize growing southern and central regions. However, substantial and widespread rains in mid-December allowed planting and replanting operations. Despite heavy rains associated to Cyclone Defina in January and localized crop losses, rains in January and early February have been favourable for crop development. Preliminary assessments of the flood damage indicated that 23 500 hectares of foodcrops had been affected but following subsequent good weather about 50 percent of the crops have recovered. The maize crop, which ranges from tasseling to cobbing and maturing stages according to region, is reported in generally good condition. However, by late February a one-week dry spell was affecting central parts and more rains were needed. The overall outlook is also satisfactory as a result of a considerable expansion in the Government’s TIP free inputs distribution programme which has targeted close to 3 million households, comparing with 1.8 million last year. Additional distributions by NGOs and other humanitarian organizations, coupled with market supplies, have resulted in record levels of fertilizer availability this season.
Preliminary official forecast prepared in January, pointed to a 2003 maize crop of 2 million tonnes, well above the reduced crops of 1.5 million tonnes last year. The expected increase in production reflects an expansion of 4 percent in the area planted and a recovery in yields.
As a result of the 2002 reduced cereal harvest, and following severe food shortages in the previous year, the Government imported 233 000 tonnes of maize, to be sold at a subsidized price of 17 kwacha/kg, plus 27 000 tonnes for the Strategic Grain Reserve for free distribution. Food aid requirement was estimated at 208 000 tonnes of cereals, all of which has been pledged and distributions until the end of the 2002/03 marketing year (April/March) are projected at over 200 000 tonnes. In addition to these volumes, substantial amounts of maize (estimated at least at 100 000 tonnes) have been imported informally from Mozambique and Tanzania. While these high levels of imports have stabilized market prices at around 17 kwacha/kg during the marketing year, large amounts of stocks will be carried over into the next marketing year. By late February, only 25 000 tonnes of the 233 000 tonnes of maize the Government was offering at subsidized prices through ADMARC, had been sold. The Government plans to increase the Strategic Grain Reserve up to 100 000 tonnes while at the same time is trying to sell part of the remaining stocks. The large carry-over stocks, coupled with an expected good harvest, are likely to result in a sharp decline in prices and could adversely affect plantings in the next season. By the end of February prices of maize were declining in most markets and were well below their levels of a year ago.