ZAMBIA (28 February)
Abundant rains in February in the Southern Province and parts of the Western and Lusaka provinces, previously affected by below average and erratic precipitation, have resulted in a remarkable improvement of the crops which are at different stage of development. While crops planted in November with the first rains were lost to dry weather, most farmers replanted in December and January. Because of the very erratic precipitation this season and the diverse planting times, crops ranged from vegetative to grain filling stages by late February. If good rains continue until late March a generally satisfactory harvest, well above last year’s poor crop, can still be obtained in Southern Province. An intensified monitoring of the rains and crop conditions is necessary until the end of the rainy season, particularly in areas where crops were worst stressed by dry weather. In these pocket areas, there is a risk that crops may not have reached maturity by early April when the rains normally end.
Elsewhere, including the main growing northern areas, cereal crops are reported in good condition and the overall prospects for the 2003 cereal harvest are favourable. After delay in the start of the rainy season, widespread good precipitation in December provided adequate soil moisture for planting and replanting. Abundant rains in February resulted in localized floods in Eastern and Central Provinces but generally benefited crops at the grain filling stage. In general, cumulative precipitation since the beginning of the season has been normal to above normal in most provinces.
The food situation has eased with improved distributions of food aid since December. About 23 000 tonnes of cereals were distributed in January and similar quantities are projected for February and March. Overall, against food aid needs of 224 000 tonnes, deliveries until the end of April are expected to reach some 130 000 tonnes of cereals. The gap reflects delays in distributions due to the Government’s decision not to accept food aid of GMO maize. Formal commercial imports have been reduced as most of the country’s food deficit has been filled by substantial informal cross-border inflows from Tanzania and Mozambique. Prices of maize, which had increased from November, have started to decline in anticipation of a good harvest. Traders and millers expect a substantial reduction in prices in the new marketing year.