ZIMBABWE* (27 February)
Prospects for this year’s cereal crops are poor. In the maize growing areas of the north, good rains in late January and February provided relief to crops affected by prolonged dry spells earlier in the season but they are likely to have arrived too late to prevent yield reductions. However, the final outcome will depend on the rains until early April. In southern and western areas, the worst affected by dry weather during the cropping season, precipitation was insufficient to reverse severe drought conditions. The outlook for the cereal crops, mainly maize, is also unfavourable due to serious shortages of agricultural inputs and reduced plantings following land reforms in the commercial sector. While last year the commercial sector accounted for one third of the reduced production of 498 000 tonnes, this year only 15 000 tonnes are expected from commercial farmers. Early forecasts point to a maize crop around last year’s level. An assessment of the crop conditions is currently been undertaken by the National Early Warning Unit.
Food shortages are becoming critical in rural and urban areas following the reduced cereal harvest of last year and the country’s economic crisis that hampers food imports. High inflation levels continue to undermine access to food for the majority of the population. Against an exceptional maize deficit of some 1.7 million tonnes in marketing year 2002/03 (April/March), the Government has contracted 1 million tonnes but by early December only some 700 000 tonnes had been received in the country. Food aid distribution was stepped up during February with WFP delivering close to 55 000 tonnes to 3.4 million beneficiaries, more than double the previous highest level. Distributions until the end of the marketing year in March are projected at 278 000 tonnes of food. Despite the improvement, the uncovered food deficit remains huge, particularly in view of increasing numbers of vulnerable people, which recent assessments revised upwards to 7.2 millions or more than half of the total population. There is urgent need to expedite commercial imports.