1049-C5

Forests and forestry in the future: what can we expect in the next fifty years?

C.T.S. Nair ¹

Abstract

"... the greatest changes are almost certainly ahead of us. We can also be sure that the society of 2030 will be very different from that of today, and that it will bear little resemblance to that predicted by today's best-selling futurists."

Peter Drucker

Between 1950 and 2000, globally the forest sector has undergone significant change, the pace of which is expected to accelerate in the next five decades. Different societies interact with forests differently and as alternative sources of products and income become available, provision of environmental services gains primacy. Predicting the future of world's forests hence requires a better understanding of the overall development of societies. Within the next 50 years the major changes that are certain include:

An increase in global population with divergent regional trends in growth and age distribution altering the demographic, social and economic map of the world;
Technological advancements, especially in biomaterials, biotechnology and information and communication; and
Changes in energy systems with renewables enhancing their share.

While these changes, strengthened through globalization, provide enormous opportunities, major uncertainties exist as regards political and institutional developments. Two broad scenarios could be identified, each resulting in a very different society - forest relationship. Since what happens to forests is largely decided by what happens outside the sector, it is imperative for the forestry profession to gain a better understanding of societal development to foresee emerging opportunities and constraints.

Introduction:

Between 1950 and 2000 the forest sector has undergone significant changes globally, some positive and others less so. Forests are at the centre of global discussions, given the heightened awareness of their significance to societal well-being. In many countries, the reduction in forest cover has been reversed and substantial efforts have been made to implement sustainable forest management. Trade in forest products has also increased enormously both in volume and in value.

However, the pace of change has not been uniform and, in several countries, forest cover has declined. While at the aggregate level the supply of wood and wood products has been adequate to meet increasing demand, pockets of scarcity persist. Technological advances have been uneven and many countries have not been able to take advantage of progress in science. Further there is a growing concern about the widening gaps in science and technology and in the narrowing of options (FAO, 2003). Loss of biological diversity, water scarcity and declining land productivity remain major problems. The impact of climate change due to the accumulation of green-house gases is another critical issue confronting society.

Notwithstanding uncertainties, it is important to take a long term view and explore what factors are likely to impact on forests and forestry, how forestry will develop in the next five decades and what options are available to shape outcomes. This paper provides a glimpse of the changing shape of forestry, speculating on what might be expected in the next five decades.

PEOPLE AND FORESTS

Divergent perception of forests:

As societies evolve, so do their perception of and relationship with nature and natural resources. To analyse these changes, societies can be grouped into four broad categories: (a) traditional societies, highly dependent on forests, (b) agrarian societies, (c) industrial societies and (d) post-industrial societies. Table 1 summarises the nature of society's relationship with forests.

Table 1. An overview of society's linkages to forests

Type of Society	Principal uses of forests
Traditional	Forests are used to meet basic needs such as for woodfuel, medicines, food, and construction materials. These societies have limited capacity to alter the forest environment drastically. Forests permeate cultural, social and religious beliefs and perceptions.
Agrarian	Forests are viewed as space to expand agriculture, including livestock; as a source of low-cost inputs for agriculture and of woodfuel, fodder, medicines and other non-wood forest products such as bush meat. Sale of products also supplements income to farming communities. With settled cultivation, the service functions of forests (e.g., watershed protection, arresting land degradation) become important.
Industrial	Forests are used as a source of industrial raw material with increasing emphasis on large scale plantations to reduce pressure on natural forests. Forests are a source for such services as clean water and recreation.
Post-industrial	The significance of forests as a source of products decreases and increases as a source of services (see Box 1). Cultural, environmental and aesthetic values gain primacy.

While tools and techniques are available to provide an indication of the total economic value of forests, conflicts nevertheless arise as a result of divergent perceptions and use of forest resources.

BOX 1: INCREASING EMPHASIS ON PRODUCTION OF SERVICES

"Perhaps the most pronounced change in North American forest management over the next several decades will be a continuation of the dramatic shift in public perception concerning the value and appropriate use of forests. In particular, publicly owned natural forests will become increasingly valued for environmental services they provide - notably watershed protection, biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration - instead of just their wood and other forest product values".

Dombeck and Moad, 2001

Key characteristics of societies

It thus becomes important to consider key characteristics of the different societies and the conditions and the pace in which societal transformation takes place. Table 2 describes some of these characteristics.

Table 2: Key characteristics of societies

Characteristics	Traditional societies	Agrarian societies	Industrial societies	Post-industrial societies
Demographic features	Stable, largely due to natural factors. Almost entirely rural. Tribal and clan groups dominate social structure.	Rapid increase in population. Large proportion of youth with values and aspirations very different from parents. Rural; joint families	Tending towards stability. Increasing urbanisation. Nuclear families and further fragmentation.	Stable or declining; dependence on immigration. Shrinking proportion of youth and corresponding increase in older population. Urban and shift to peri-urban areas
Technology	Little technological inputs; production almost entirely dependent on natural factors.	Land as the key factor of production Labour intensive.	Even agriculture undertaken on industrial scale with significant increase in energy inputs Large scale production and increasing emphasis on consolidation	Shift towards more energy and material efficient technologies.
Production and consumption	Almost entirely subsistence focused. Communal production and shared consumption.	Largely subsistence consumption. Some surplus traded to procure industrial goods. Land and labour as the key factors of production.	A high proportion of goods and services produced is traded. Large scale production and trade depends on mass markets. Capital and skilled labour main factors of production.	Shift from mass production to meeting needs of smaller markets. Increased emphasis on customization. Information and knowledge become the critical inputs in production of goods and services. Dematerialisation of production.

It is important to take note of (a) the diversity and variability within groups and (b) the co-existence of and interaction among different societies within a country or locality². In most countries they co-exist and, over time, their proportion changes. The forest situation in 2050 will largely depend on societal changes, especially the relative size of groups and the nature and pace of transition.

FACTORS INFLUENCING CHANGE

Obviously societal transition and hence people-forest interaction are determined by the collective impact of a number of factors. Some of these are proximal and direct while others are indirect. Undoubtedly demographic changes, technological growth and poltical and institutional developments are key to factors impacting forests and forestry directly and indirectly.

Demographic changes

Population growth, age distribution and movements, including urbanisation and migration, are expected to significantly impact the forest sector in the next 5 decades. As shown in Table 3, between 1950 and 2000 world population increased from 2.5 billion to 6.0 billion and is projected to increase to 9.3 billion by 2050 (United Nations, 2002).

Table 3. Population change between 1950 - 2050 (in millions)

Year	Africa	Asia	Europe	Latin America	North America	Oceania	World Total
1950	221	1,399	548	167	172	13	2,519
2000	794	3,672	727	519	314	30	6,056
2020	1,231	4,582	695	664	370	38	7,579
2050	2,000	5,428	603	806	438	47	9,322

Source: United Nations, 2002

Key demographic changes from 2000 to 2050 and their likely impact on forests are summarised below.

Africa, Asia and, to a limited extent, Latin America would account for more than 99 percent of the increase in global population between 2000 and 2050. Unless there are significant structural changes in the economies resulting in the development of the industrial and services sectors, agriculture will remain the principal source of livelihood. In the absence of adequate efforts to increase productivity, more land will have to be brought under agriculture, often at the expense of forests.
Europe is expected to face two problems: a decline in population (about 124 million) and ageing. The proportion of people over 60 is estimated to increase from 20.2 percent to 35 percent and the 15 to 59 age group is likely decrease from 62.3 percent to 50.2 percent (UN, 2002)³. Such changes will affect productivity, income and the nature of goods and services demanded.
Africa will register a 10 percent increase in the population between the ages 15 and 59 (UN, 2002). Developing human resources and finding remunerative employment will continue to be critical issues. In the absence of major structural changes, agriculture and low-wage activities that depend on land and natural resources will continue to be the main source of livelihood with its consequences on forests.

Technological changes

Developments in other sectors and their impact on forests:

Often, technologies developed outside the forest sector affect it profoundly. While new agricultural and industrial technologies have reduced pressure on forests, technological developments have also enhanced the industrial use of forests. In this regard, the following points are noteworthy.

Technological changes in traditional and agrarian societies are slow and most production depends on natural factors, especially climate and availability of labour.
The "green revolution" has significantly increased agriculture production in several countries, especially in Asia, thereby stimulating industrial investment. Such advances have also resulted in the development of productivity enhancing technologies in areas such as tree improvement, including the application of biotechnology.
Developments in transportation technology have improved access to markets and raw material, enabling some forest industries to enter the global market. This is evident from the rapid growth of trade in wood products in the last two decades.
Rapid advances in information and communication technology, including remote sensing, allow regular monitoring of forest resources and detection of outbreaks of fire, pests and diseases. In addition, technologies such as GPS and GIS have altered the approach to resource planning.

Key developments in the forest sector

Other important technological developments that have particularly impacted the forest sector are:

Improvements in wood processing permit the use of a larger number of species and trees of smaller dimensions. Efficiency in processing has improved and recycling, as in the case of paper, has reduced wood rawmaterial requirements.
Technologies related to tree improvement, including clonal propagation, and improved site management have enhanced the productivity of planted forests which are becoming the most important source industrial wood in the short and medium terms. However, changing technologies and growing environmental concerns may reduce their significance in the long term.
Although many non-wood forest products are used in traditional ways and their properties are known, technological developments have identified and isolated active ingredients and have refined processing techniques. Moreover, increased concerns over health are resulting in a rapid growth of markets for natural products.

Future technological developments in forestry

BOX 2: THE WORLD OF BIOMATERIALS

"Within the next decade biomaterials are likely to become a major and continuing influence on global manufacturing, driven by growing consumer demand for renewable and biodegradable products. US office of Industrial Technologies projections say that at least 10% of basic chemical building blocks will be plant derived renewables by 2020, increasing to 50% by 2050"

McLean, 2002

Forecasting future technological changes, especially in forestry, is extremely difficult. However, as in almost all sectors, a completely different array of technologies is expected to emerge to cater to the needs of knowledge-based post-industrial societies. Recognized limits to "green revolution" technologies are moving research efforts to more environmentally friendly agriculture. Better understanding of ecological processes, combined with improvements in nutrient management through bio-fertilisers and improved water management, will alter agriculture production. Customized production could replace mass production and more energy and material efficient small scale production is emerging.

BOX 3: PRECISION FORESTRY

"What is there to prevent a move to precision forestry? Science is reaching the stage at which it could enable the intensive management of highly complex forest systems. Computer simulations could make it possible to manage forests for an optimal mix of all products and services".

Sayer, 2001

Implications on forestry of emerging technologies are as follows.

Advances in materials technology could result in a wide range of products tailored to the needs of highly segmented markets. Inherent wood properties would become less important since specific characteristics could be added or modified during processing. Wood processing technologies would be less material and energy intensive (see Box 2) and declining mass markets would reduce the need for large scale production. Products will be custom-made and emphasis will be on ready-to-use products or on those that consumers can easily assemble. Computerised design and production, including materials required for specific conditions or for individual customers, could change the market for products completely.⁴
New wood processing technologies are likely to impact the way wood is produced. "Precision forestry" based on a better understanding of ecological processes would help fine-tune interventions (See Box 3 - see also Taylor, et.al 2002). Skill-intensive multiple use management would find wider application. Also, a reduction in the scale of processing will favour small scale wood production.
Developments in remote sensing and information and communication technologies would enable real-time monitoring of resources and users can access much of this information. Monitoring compliance to international agreements as well as local arrangements, for example, to manage watersheds and biological diversity would have become easier.

The era of renewable energy

Changes in the energy sector will have a profound impact on forestry in the next 50 years. Investments in renewable sources are expected to significantly increase the share of wind, solar and hydrogen energy. Replacing fossil fuels with such sources could drastically change the way production, consumption and even society are organized. Large scale, centralised systems of energy production and distribution characteristic of fossil fuel economies are likely to become obsolete.

BOX 4: END OF THE OIL ERA

"The stone age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for lack of oil".

Sheik Yamani (quoted in Dale, R. 2000)

In view of the close linkages between economic development and energy use, and the extensive use of forests as a source of energy, any change in the overall energy supply and demand will have a significant impact in many countries where biomass is the most important source of energy, especially for cooking, space heating and rural industries. The future of biomass energy and, consequently, that of forests will hinge on the availability and accessibility of new technology and the extent to which it will replace fossil fuels, wood and other biomass. It will also depend on developments in biomass energy technologies, especially those that improve energy efficiency. However, persistence of the business-as-usual scenario would imply that:

Biomass will continue to be the most important source of energy for a large proportion of people in developing countries, especially if cheaper and more efficient energy sources are not available/ accessible. While the technology for solar and wind energy exists, its wider adoption will largely depend on accessibility and affordability.
Countries in the midst of industrialisation will remain dependent on fossil fuels although the use of renewables will increase somewhat.
Post-industrial societies are expected to significantly increase the share of renewables, including woodfuel. Improvements in energy conversion technologies, especially in the context of carbon stabilisation strategies, will lead to increased use of wood-fuel.

POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL SCENARIOS

The impact of the above-noted developments depends on political and institutional changes at different levels and the extent to which such changes empower individuals and societies. Globalisation is altering the opportunities and constraints in unprecedented ways as political, economic, societal and cultural borders are becoming less relevant (Aventis Foundation, 1999). The two broad and opposing trends in the political and institutional developments discernible now are:

BOX 5: INCREASING POVERTY

"A growing divide between the haves and have-nots has left increasing numbers of the Third World in dire poverty, living on less than a dollar a day. Despite repeated promises of poverty reduction made over the last decade of the twentieth century, the actual number of people living in poverty increased by almost 100 million. This occurred at the same time that world income actually increased by an average of 2.5 percent annually"

Stiglitz, 2002

Persistence of inequitable political and institutional systems:

If alternative approaches to historical trends of exploitation are not adopted, inequality and poverty will increase (see Box 5). In the absence of a level playing field globalisation often weakens democratic decision-making, undermines the emergence of more socially and ecologically viable alternatives and marginalizes a sizeable segment of the population. The principles of sustainability and equity could also be compromised if the exploitation of people and resources is perpetuated by the global reach of technology and economic/military power.

Emergence of an egalitarian society:

On the other hand, democratisation, decentralisation and the wider adoption of participatory approaches are altering political and institutional frameworks. Increasingly, civil society is playing a corrective role at local, national and global levels addressing the deficiencies of existing inequitable political and institutional arrangements . Advocating rights of indigenous people and minority groups, according greater importance to the role of women and pursuing an environment and people-friendly development agenda are gaining wider acceptance. A global network of civil society organizations is influencing decisions on a wide range of issues, including the protection of rainforests, the use of genetically modified organisms, the protection of human rights and transparency and accountability in public and private enterprises.

Over the next 50 years, these two scenarios could result in very different outcomes that would significantly alter the relationship between society and forests. Table 4 summarises potential implications.

Table 4: Alternative future scenarios

Implications

Persistence of inequitable political and institutional arrangements

Emergence of a more

egalitarian society

Overall state of the economies

Societal transition is slow, social structure remains pyramidal and the proportion of population in the post-industrial segment remains small;

Disparities widen and poverty persists in a large number of countries, especially in Asia and Africa;

Industrialisation in some countries in Asia and Latin America increases although most remain primarily agrarian, supplying food and raw materials to newly industrialised countries.

Technological progress is confined to industrial and post-industrial societies.

Conflicts over resources persist.

Societal transition is horizontal and even agrarian and traditional societies are able to move to a post-industrial state;

Disparities within and between countries decline. Poverty and food insecurity are eliminated.

New markets emerge;

Industrialisation is more widespread, largely facilitated by the wider use of new technologies (especially relating to renewable energy and small-scale processing).

Conflicts over resource use are significantly reduced. Political and institutional pluralism is more widely accepted.

Forestry situation

Increasing demand for land and persistence of forest cover loss and other related problems, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America;

Newly industrialised countries exert significant demand on forest products and the implementation of sustainable forest management is limited;

Efforts to protect the environment and enhance the flow of services are limited to a few post-industrial countries;

Broad-based development, including improved access to productivity enhancing technologies, reduces the pressure on forests and significantly improves forest cover;

Wider access to renewable energy technologies reduces the demand for woodfuel, thereby arresting forest degradation;

Improved processing technologies, including recycling, significantly reduces raw material requirements;

The range of forest functions is better appreciated.

The actual development in most countries would be somewhere between the two situations outlined above. If a business-as-usual situation persists, most benefits associated with economic and technological progress will be limited to a few countries and, in many, a sizeable segment of society will remain un-empowered. Most agrarian societies are likely to face severe conflicts over resources. On the other hand, opportunities to bring about positive change through political and institutional arrangements are tremendous if full advantage is taken of economic and technological progress. However, while economic and technological progress may be rapid, political and institutional changes are slow, causing increased conflicts between people and between people and nature.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

The next 50 years will witness changes on an unprecedented scale, making it almost impossible to predict precisely what may happen. Developments that are certain include (a) continued population growth and a significant change in its distribution among regions and age groups, and (b) rapid advances in technology, especially in energy, biomaterials and biotechnology. Understanding of ecological processes will increase significantly, enhancing the potential to fine tune interventions. The main uncertainty relates to political and institutional developments. Failure to address negative tendencies will perpetuate conflicts and result in the unsustainable use of natural resources, including forests, especially in developing countries. On the other hand, political and institutional changes that address economic and technological change could usher in a very different world in which the multiple functions of forests and trees are integrated into the economic, social, cultural, environmental and spiritual dimensions of life. All this would require that the forestry profession give substantial attention to understand societal changes and foresee the emerging opportunities and constraints.

REFERENCES

Aventis Foundation, 1999. Globalisation, technological innovation and social change: Molding the 21^st century, Aventis Triangle Forum, www.cap-info.de/triangle 1999/paper/chapter1.

Dombeck M, and A. Moad, 2001. Forests and the future: regional perspectives - North America, Unasylva, 204 , p 49 - 51

Drucker, P. 2001. Survey: The Near Future (Part II), The Economist, November 09, 2001. www.cfo.com/printarticle/

FAO. 2003. State of the World's Forests 2003, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.

McLean,V. 2002. The brave new world of biomaterials, NZ Forest Industries, September 2002, p 22 -23

Sayer, J. 2001. Tropical forests: diverging development paradigms, Unasylva 204, pp 52

Stiglitz, J. 2002. Globalization and its discontents, Allen Lane, The Penguin Press, London.

Taylor, S.E, M.W. veal, T.E.Grift, T.P. McDonald and F.W. Corley, 2002. Precision forestry: Operational tactics for today and tomorrow, Proceedings of the International Meeting of the Council of Forest Engineering, in www.eng.auburn.edu/department/au/research.

United Nations. 2003. World population prospects: the 2002 revision - highlights. UN Population Division, New York.

Yamani, Sheikh, quoted in R. Dale. 2000. Few oil-producing countries prepared for a turnaround in their fortunes, Thinking Ahead, International Herald Tribune, 29 September 2000.

¹ Chief, Forestry Planning and Statistics Branch, Forestry Department, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy. [email protected]

² For example, in many developing countries agrarian communities co-exist with forest-dwelling hunter-gatherers, an industrial society producing high value export products and even a small segment of post-industrial society of knowledge-workers working in collaboration with other knowledge-workers in distant countries.

³ Globally the population in the age class is estimated to decline from 30.1 percent to 20.1 percent, while those above 60 is estimated to increase from 10 percent to 21.4 percent.

⁴ This implies that those who are producing high quality long rotation timber may find their markets declining, although small niche markets may remain.