FAO DESERT LOCUST BULLETIN NO. 245 (issued 3 March 1999)
GENERAL SITUATION DURING FEBRUARY 1999
FORECAST UNTIL MID-APRIL 1999
1. SUMMARY
The Desert Locust situation continued to remain calm during February despite two small outbreaks. Both of these outbreaks, one in north-eastern Sudan and a smaller one in south-eastern Libya, appear to be declining as a result of control operations during January and February. Unusually dry conditions prevailed in breeding areas along the Red Sea, and the risk of locusts appearing on the plains from the Sudan interior has diminished. Consequently, very little development is expected in that area. Good rains have started to fall in the spring breeding areas of western Pakistan where low numbers of adults are present and may start to breed. No other significant infestations were reported in the recession area.
Central Region. The situation is improving in north-eastern Sudan where an outbreak has been in progress for the past several months. Many of the control operations against hopper bands and adult groups are slowing down. Since this was an unprecedented outbreak, it is difficult precisely to say what will happen to those adults that may have been uncontrolled. They may disperse within the area or some could move towards the Red Sea Hills or coastal plains. Isolated adults were present in south-eastern Egypt, in one area of the Red Sea coastal plains in Saudi Arabia and in north-western Somalia. Unless further rains fall, numbers will decrease along the coastal plains due to the unusually dry conditions. Scattered locusts may be present in northern Oman and in adjacent parts of UAE where they could breed in areas that recently received rain.
Western Region. Control operations were carried out against hopper bands and adult groups in south-eastern Libya near the Sudanese/Egyptian border where a small outbreak developed last month. The outbreak was over 1,000 km from the one in north-eastern Sudan and had no immediate connection to it. Although reports suggest that the situation is improving, there is still a possibility of small scale breeding and band formation. The outbreak does not threaten neighbouring countries or regions. Isolated adults were present in western Niger. No significant developments are expected in the Region.
Eastern Region. Widespread rains fell in the spring breeding areas of western Pakistan where scattered adults are present and could start to breed. Lower numbers of adults and less rain fell in adjacent areas of Iran.
2. WEATHER & ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN FEBRUARY 1999
Unusually dry conditions continued to persist along the Red Sea coastal plains. Light to moderate rains fell in some spring breeding areas of northern Oman, UAE and western Pakistan. Light rains were also reported from a few desert areas of North-West Africa.
In the Near East, very little rain fell along the Red Sea coastal plains. As a result, vegetation from the January rains dried out and conditions were not favourable for breeding except in a few places near Mecca and Jizan in Saudi Arabia. Light rains fell at times in northern Saudi Arabia where temperatures were unusually high for this time of year. Moderate to heavy showers were reported in UAE from Dubai to Ras Al Khaimah and extending to the northern Batinah coast of Oman. Conditions should improve in these areas to allow limited spring breeding.
In Eastern Africa, no significant rainfall was reported during the month. Unusually dry conditions prevailed for the fourth month in a row along the Red Sea coastal plains. Consequently, breeding is unlikely to occur except in a few cropping areas such as the Tokar Delta in Sudan or other run-off areas. Vegetation was reported to be dry in eastern Ethiopia. Although light rains fell in a few valleys of north-western Somalia, unusually dry conditions prevailed in coastal and subcoastal areas where only small patches of green vegetation was reported in some wadis and foothill areas.
In South-West Asia, widespread light to moderate rains fell in the spring breeding areas of Baluchistan in western Pakistan throughout the month. Rain was reported along the coast near Pasni, in subcoastal valleys near Turbat and Panjgur, and in the interior near Dalbandin and Nushki. This should be enough to allow breeding to commence. Light rains fell on the coastal plains of south-eastern Iran but were probably not enough for breeding. Isolated showers fell in some places along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border where mainly dry conditions prevailed.
In North-West Africa, light rains were reported from a few places along the southern side of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria as well in the central Sahara of Algeria. As a result of the low rainfall and temperature, conditions remained unfavourable for breeding. Although good rains fell in southern Tunisia, this is not likely to have a significant impact on the locust situation. Light to moderate rains also fell in parts of western and central Libya.
In West Africa, no significant rainfall was reported except for an isolated shower in central Mauritania near Tidjikja. Breeding conditions remained unfavourable except in a few places of northern Mauritania where some green vegetation was present in wadis and low-lying areas. Vegetation was drying out in the Tamesna of Niger.
3. AREA TREATED
Egypt: 200 ha (February)
Libya: 8,140 ha (1-17 Feb)
Sudan: 3,391 ha (9-31 Jan); 812 ha (1-17 Feb)
4. DESERT LOCUST SITUATION & FORECAST
( see also the summary on the first page )
WEST AFRICA
Mauritania
• Situation
No surveys were conducted and no locusts were reported during February.
• Forecast
Scattered adults may be present and could breed in a few limited areas of the north between Akjoujt and Zouerate. No significant developments are likely.
Mali
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
A few isolated locusts may be present and could persist in a few areas in the Adrar des Iforas.
Niger
• Situation
Isolated immature adults were present at four places in Tamesna near In Abangharit (1757N/0603E) in mid January.
• Forecast
Isolated adults are likely to persist in a few areas of Tamesna.
Chad
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Senegal
• Situation
No locusts were reported in early February.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Guinea Conakry
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
NORTH-WEST AFRICA
Algeria
• Situation
No locusts were reported during February.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present in a few places in the central and southern Sahara and perhaps south of the Atlas Mountains near Bechar. No significant developments are likely.
Morocco
• Situation
No locusts were reported during February.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present or could appear in a few places south-east of the Atlas Mountains and in the Adrar Souttouf region of the extreme south-west.
Tunisia
• Situation
No locusts were reported during January.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
• Situation
Laying groups of adults at densities up to 15 per sq. metre continued to be reported from the extreme south-east near Jebel Uweinat (2156N/2504E) up to 17 February. New infestations consisting of second to fifth instar hopper bands at densities up to 6 hoppers per sq. m and immature adults were found in the same area which is confined to small wadis and depressions near where the borders of Libya, Egypt and Sudan meet. Since the last week of January, about 4,000 ha were estimated to be infested with copulating and laying adult groups and 5,300 ha with hopper bands mixed with adults. Control operations treated 8,140 ha up from 1-17 February.
• Forecast
Hatching and band formation is likely to commence in early March near Jebel Uweinat. The scale of the breeding will depend on the success of earlier control operations but it is expected to be limited to just a few green areas. New adults may form a few small groups that will probably persist in the area throughout the forecast period.
EASTERN AFRICA
Sudan
• Situation
During the last three weeks of January, hopper bands continued to form from previous laying and hatching along a 100 km stretch of the Atbara River south-east of Atbara (1742N/3400E) in the north-eastern interior. By the end of January, most of the bands were late instars and many of the hoppers had fledged and new adults were reported. Aerial and ground control operations treated 3,391 ha during the period. No locusts were seen further west in areas of previous infestations in the Baiyuda Desert or in Northern Kordofan. No locust reports were received from the Red Sea coastal plains where conditions are said to be unusually dry.
During February, the situation was improving in the north as the size of the infested area declined. Control operations treated 812 ha of late instar bands and groups of fledglings and immature adults up to 17 February. No locusts were reported on the Red Sea coastal plains.
• Forecast
Any locusts that escape detection or control in the Atbara area could disperse within the area and mature, or appear near the hills or coastal plains of the Red Sea. There is a slight possibility that others could move northwards during periods of warm southerly winds or, as temperatures increase, southwards into the Northern Kordofan and White Nile provinces.
Eritrea
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Scattered solitarious adults are likely to be present in a few places along the Red Sea coastal plains.
Somalia
• Situation
Isolated immature adults were seen in three wadis in coastal and subcoastal areas in the north-west on 19-24 February.
• Forecast
Low numbers of solitarious adults are likely to persist in some interior and coastal areas of the north-west. Small scale breeding may occur if additional rains fall by the end of the forecast period.
Ethiopia
• Situation
No locusts were reported in the south-east part of the country near Harer during the first dekad of February.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Djibouti
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
NEAR EAST
Saudi Arabia
• Situation
Isolated immature adults were present at a few places on the Red Sea coastal plains near Qunfidah (1909N/4107E) on 6-9 February. No locusts were seen during surveys south of Qunfidah.
• Forecast
If additional rains do not fall and as the threat of adults arriving from Eastern Africa decreases, locust numbers are expected to decline along the Red Sea coastal plains.
Yemen
• Situation
No reports were received during February.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present in few areas along the northern coastal plains of the Red Sea and perhaps on the Gulf of Aden coastal plains. Unless further rain falls, numbers will decrease in all areas.
Egypt
• Situation
No locusts were seen during surveys along the Red Sea coastal plains north of Shalatein during January.
During February, isolated adults at densities of 1 per ha were seen in the south-east in Wadi Diib (2205N/3555E) and two other wadis nearby. In the Western Desert, control operations treated 200 ha of solitary adults at densities of 400 per ha near the Libyan border at Jebel Uweinat (2156N/2504E).
• Forecast
Low numbers of adults may be present and breeding in a few places on the southern coastal plains of the Red Sea in areas of recent rainfall. Scattered adults may persist in the Western Desert near Jebel Uweinat.
Kuwait
• Situation
No locusts were reported during January.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Oman
• Situation
No locusts were seen during surveys from 31 January to 20 February on the Batinah coast, near Quriyat and in the Sharqiya Region.
• Forecast
Scattered adults may be present on the northern Batinah and could breed in areas of recent rainfall.
UAE
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Scattered adults may be present near Fujayrah and Ras Al Khaimah and could breed in areas of recent rainfall.
Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Syria Arab Republic and Turkey
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
SOUTH-WEST ASIA
Iran
• Situation
Isolated mature adults were present at three locations on the coastal plains west of Chabahar (2518N/6038E) on 20 February.
• Forecast
Low numbers of adults will persist on the coastal plains and could appear in a few places in the interior of Baluchistan. Small scale breeding may occur if additional rains fall.
Pakistan
• Situation
Isolated adults were reported at six locations near the coast of Baluchistan in Turbat, Pasni and Gwadar Districts during the first half of February.
• Forecast
Small scale breeding is expected to commence in coastal and interior areas of Baluchistan where recent rains have fallen. Consequently, locust numbers will slowly increase as hoppers appear during the forecast period.
India
• Situation
No locusts were reported from mid January to mid February.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present and could persist in a few places in Rajasthan. No significant developments are likely.
Afghanistan
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.