This policy brief addresses the question of the economic drivers of both deforestation and forest degradation (DD) in Zambia. It develops a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario to support reference levels for greenhouse gas (GHC) emissions. The relative contributions to DD of the two largest proximate drivers of deforestation in Zambia, charcoal production and agriculture, are predicted under different scenarios over the 2015-2022 period. Possible ways of reducing land use change (LUC) are examined using an economy-wide model capturing Zambia’s different agro-ecological regions (AERs). The model assumes that forests used for unsustainable charcoal production are degraded, or can be in part converted to land for agriculture use. However, land can also be deforested directly for agricultural use without going through charcoal production. The brief concludes that concerted action on both the supply and demand sides is crucial to the success of the national strategy for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+).