There is growing evidence that global warming will have a substantial negative impact on agricultural yields, in particular in developing countries. This constitutes a risk for rural households, and unless these households are able to manage this risk, they will become increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity. In using data on Nicaragua, this paper demonstrates how an econometric model can be used to inform decision makers on the likely impact of global warming on the food security status of different types of households, the geographic distribution of these households and factors influencing households’ ability to fend for themselves. The paper also discusses what could be done to reduce household vulnerability to future food insecurity.