Launch of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 Opening Remarks (Virtual)

Excellences,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Dear Colleagues,

With this 20th edition of the Report, FAO and the OECD have reached a milestone, and it is a significant testament of our close collaboration during the past 20 years.

Two decades ago, we recognized the benefits of jointly developing an annual agricultural outlook that would benefit from our collective expertise, including our human and technical resources.

Which allowed us to move towards a simulation model focused on major agricultural commodity markets capable of producing annual baseline projections, as well as timely forward-looking analyses of emerging market and policy issues.

Key examples include the global food price crises of 2007-2008, and 2010-2012, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as rising geopolitical tensions.

I would like to commend all our partners for their strategic vision in supporting this joint project over the past 20 years, which we expect to develop even further in the future.

I would like to highlight some key messages arising from the 2024 results:

Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural market developments over the last 20 years and are expected to continue to do so over the next decade.

Calorie intake is expected to increase by seven percent in middle-income countries, largely due to greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats.

Calorie intake in low-income countries will grow at four percent, too slowly to achieve the SDG2 target of zero hunger by 2030.

Agriculture’s global greenhouse gas emissions intensity is expected to decline, as growth will be based on productivity improvements, rather than cultivated land and livestock herd expansions - although direct emissions from agriculture will still increase by five percent.

Well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain important for global food security: as 20 percent of calories are traded; and rural livelihoods can benefit from participation in markets and global agrifood value chains. 

A slight fall in real international reference prices for the main agricultural commodities is projected over the next 10 years, but this may not necessarily be reflected in local retail food prices.

Dear Colleagues,

The Outlook confirms the need to implement strategies that bridge productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries to increase domestic production and boost farmers’ incomes.

FAO has been supporting and promoting technological advancements and sustainable use of natural resources, which have been pivotal in driving agricultural productivity growth especially in middle-income countries.

These innovations have reshaped international trade patterns and will continue to influence the global agricultural landscape over the next decade.

To improve food security, it is critical that policymakers prioritize enhanced productivity, reducing food loss and waste, and ensure a multilateral trading system that is fair, transparent, predictable and non-discriminatory, and that takes into consideration food security objectives, and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers – 85 percent of the world’s farmers are smallholders.

This year's Outlook assesses the potential impact of reducing food loss and waste by half by 2030.

Halving food loss and waste has the potential to reduce global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by four percent and decrease the number of undernourished people by 153 million by the year 2030.

The need to transform global agrifood systems to be more efficient, more inclusive, more resilient and more sustainable is more urgent than ever before.

The climate crisis, increasing resource scarcity, and economic volatility threaten food availability, accessibility and affordability, to the detriment of food security, healthy diets and rural livelihoods.

By capitalizing on innovation and digital technologies, we can optimize resources use, minimize waste, and improve market access for the farmers.

This transformation needs to be owned by countries and implemented in collaboration with all relevant partners.

It is about transforming the way we farm, we process, we trade, we distribute, we finance and invest, and we eat – it is about producing more with less.

Ultimately, it is about ensuring the Four Betters: better production, better nutrition, a better environment and a better life, leaving no one behind.

We must unite our efforts, ensuring efficiency, effectiveness and coherence in our actions across all sectors.

It is only by working closely together can we achieve a better future for all, free from poverty, hunger, and malnutrition – for a better world.

Thank you for your collaboration. We will continue to do more and better, together.