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GLOBAL
INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
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SPECIAL REPORT
THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO AND OTHER WEATHER ANOMALIES ON CROP PRODUCTION
IN ASIA
25 September 1997
OVERVIEW
Since March 1997 significant abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures
in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, has been observed
and recognised as an El Niño phenomenon. Such an anomaly is known
to occur every 2 to 7 years, with varying degrees of intensity and duration.
The phenomenon usually peaks around late December. An El Niño is
often associated with important changes in temperatures and precipitation,
which may positively or negatively affect agriculture and water resources.
The change in sea surface temperatures also affect natural conditions for
marine ecosystems.
The last two El Niños occurred in 1982/83, which caused severe
flooding and extensive weather-related damage in Latin America and drought
in parts of Asia and 1991/92, which resulted in a severe drought in Southern
Africa. This year’s El Niño is being predicted by various experts
as one of the most severe this century as record Pacific surface temperatures
have been observed. Various climate agencies around the world also indicate
that the phenomenon will continue throughout 1997 and possibly extend into
1998. The worst affects of El Niño are expected to be felt over
the next few months.
Although no precise quantitative association between the occurrence
of El Niño and changes in agricultural production can be deduced
and while it is difficult to forecast precisely the impact of El Niño
in specific areas, as a precaution it is necessary to follow developments
and take preventive action to reduce possible adverse affects on agriculture.
In keeping with this, in recent months FAO’s Global Information and Early
Warning System has been closely monitoring weather anomalies and assessing
possible effects these may have on crop production and the food supply
situation in various parts of the world.
This report, which follows an earlier one on Latin America, focuses
on weather anomalies in Asia and the Pacific Rim, where a number of countries
are recognised as being particularly susceptible to the possible effects
of El Niño. Certainly over the last few months significant deviations
in weather patterns in the region and the adverse effects these have had
on crop production and food supply give cause for concern.
Although based on past occurrences of climate anomalies in this part
of the world it is most likely that the current drought situation in Indonesia,
Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Thailand can be traced back to the El
Niño phenomenon, other countries in the region which have had significant
weather anomalies of various origins this year are also covered in this
report. The latest assessment by country is as follows.
Bangladesh
In August, the monsoon remained active across the country, with near- to
above-normal rainfall. However, floods during the month caused by heavy
rains, in south eastern parts of the country, left over 100 000 people
homeless. Earlier floods in July killed around 100 people, made several
thousand homeless and damaged crops and property. As a result of favourable
cereal production last year, the overall food supply situation is considered
to be satisfactory. As at the end of August 1997, Government held stocks
were estimated at 919 000 tons of cereals, including 472 000 tons of wheat
and 447 000 tons of rice.
Cambodia
No specific reports of serious weather anomalies affecting agriculture
have been received. There have been reports, however, of heavy rainfall
and floods, which have affected development of the early rice crop in parts
of the country, specifically in Kratie province in the east, and of drought
in other parts. The 1997/98 target for paddy production has been set at
3.6 million tons, slightly higher than estimated output of 3.39 million
tons in 1996/97, from an area of 2.17 million hectares. Rice production
in the last two years in the country has been favourable.
China
In July and August, the worst drought in 20 years is reported to have seriously
affected crops, particularly in the provinces of Henan, Hebei, Shanxi,
Hubei, Liaoning and Jilin in central and north eastern parts of the country.
Officially it is estimated that up to two thirds of the country have been
affected by prolonged dry spells, whilst six million hectares of crops
have been particularly damaged. In the second dekad of September, rains
eased conditions somewhat, but unseasonably low rainfall in central and
southwestern regions, where drought conditions continue to affect some
3.1 million hectares of crops along the upper and middle reaches of the
Yangtze river, may affect the autumn harvest. The recent rain also improved
conditions for planting winter wheat, normally sown from the second half
of September, in central parts of the country, though more rain is still
needed.
Notwithstanding the adverse effects of the drought, the country’s food
supply situation remains satisfactory, as overall grain production this
year is likely to remain favourable, due to a bumper summer crop and sufficient
food stocks. Grain production is officially forecast at above 484 million
tons, compared with a record 490 million tons last year.
India
No extreme weather anomalies have so far been experienced this year due
to a possible El Niño effect. The southwest monsoon, which provides
some 80 percent of annual precipitation, has begun withdrawing, most of
the country having received average long term rainfall. Notwithstanding
some dry pockets, rainfall in 74 percent of districts in the country was
normal or above normal and 31 of 35 sub divisions have received good rains.
In the second dekad of September, increased monsoon activity favoured developing
grain, oilseed and cotton across central parts of the country, particularly
in Gujarat.
Although the overall rainfall situation has been normal, poor temporal
and spatial distribution of rains adversely affected crops in southern
states where reductions of output of winter foodgrains and oilseeds are
expected. As a result, the output of winter grains is expected to be some
2 million tons below target and to fall from 105.1 million tons in 1996/97
to around 103.5 million tons in the current marketing year. Overall the
output of rice is projected to increase, by some 1.6 million tons, compared
to 1996/97, though production of coarse grains and pulses are both expected
to fall. The 1997/98 target for rice production, from the kharif and rabi
crop, has been set at 83 million tons.
Indonesia
The current drought is reported to be the worst in half a century. For
the remainder of 1997 and into 1998, dry conditions are predicted to continue
over southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, on the Island of Borneo, Java and
eastern parts of the country. In these areas, although monsoon rainfall
normally begins in September current projections indicate that the first
rains are likely to come in November possibly December. The impact of this
will be most noticeable on developing second season rice and maize in Java,
the country’s largest producing area. It will also affect soil moisture
conditions for maize planting in November/December in eastern parts of
Java and southern Sumatra. In addition to food crops, insufficient rainfall
and dry conditions may also affect the output of coffee in key growing
areas of Lampung and Benkulu in south Sumatra, cocoa and rubber. Overall,
official estimates indicate that the drought would affect some 300 000
hectares of rice.
Prevailing dry conditions have also exacerbated fires which have affected
agriculture and forest plantations and reduced water supplies. In August/September,
there have been various reports of falling water reserves in wells and
rivers in parts of Sumatra and Java.
As a result of the potential decline in domestic production, imports
may increase next year to meet demand, whilst prices of agricultural commodities
may also rise. Although food stocks held by the National Food Logistics
Agency (BULOG) are reported to be adequate at present, the food supply
situation could tighten due to a decrease in domestic production and it
is reported that Government agencies are making contingency plans for the
supply of emergency food rations to vulnerable segments of the population.
Korea DPR
Between June and August the country was affected by a prolonged drought.
This is expected to have serious and long reaching repercussions on the
country’s already grave food supply situation in coming months and the
year ahead, especially as the health of its population has already been
severely affected by a shortage of food over the last two years.
Although the 1997 season began favourably with appreciably above normal
rainfall in May, subsequently precipitation fell sharply. Consequently,
rainfall in the critical months of June, July and August fell to between
20 and 30 percent of the long term average. Crops were also adversely affected
by significantly above normal temperatures at critical stages of growth.
The lack of rainfall this year is also likely to affect crop prospects
in 1998 as the near depletion of water supplies in rainfed reservoirs will
mean that little will be available next April/May for land preparation
and key planting operations.
The food outlook for Korea DPR in 1998 is considerably worse than that
following the previous two years of disasters. Domestic production of cereals,
even under the most optimistic scenario, will cover less than half the
country’s minimum food needs, whilst imports from commercial channels are
likely to become increasingly strained due to growing economic difficulties
and the lack of foreign exchange. Furthermore, as commercial imports last
year were highly dependent on barter trade with neighbouring provinces
of Jilin and Liaonning in China, the fact that the drought this year also
seriously affected crop production in these provinces may reduce surpluses
and the volume of trade next year. This, therefore, may exacerbate food
problems.
Laos
No specific reports of serious weather anomalies affecting agriculture
have been received. However, last month water levels in the Mekong River
were reported to be above normal, increasing the probability of floods.
Following last year’s reduced harvest, the food supply situation in the
country remains tight, especially for vulnerable sections of the population
with low food reserves. In March 1997 an emergency operation was jointly
approved by FAO and WFP, to raise 30 240 tons of rice for victims of floods
in 1996.
Malaysia
Rainfall has been below and less frequent than normal. Although the main
revenue crops of coffee, cocoa and sugarcane are reported to be in a satisfactory
condition so far, in areas affected by severe dry conditions production
is forecast to decline. Recently the Government declared a state of emergency
in eastern Sarawak due to intense smoke haze from extensive forest fires
in Indonesia. At one stage the air pollutant index measured 635 compared
to 500 which is considered extremely dangerous.
Mongolia
No specific reports of serious weather anomalies affecting agriculture
this year have been received. However, serious concerns regarding food
security amongst vulnerable sectors of the population in the country persist
due to transitional problems in the economy and falling domestic cereal
production. An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently
in Mongolia to assess domestic production this year and the need for food
imports including emergency food assistance.
Myanmar
The worst flooding in 30 years across the country in July and August resulted
in a number of deaths. More casualties are expected due to disease, particularly
cholera. The floods were as a result of unusually heavy monsoon rains since
May. Unconfirmed reports estimate the number of people affected by the
floods at between one and two million people, with some 500 000 left homeless.
The worst affected areas were central Pegu and Irrawaddy divisions and
Mon state in the southeast. Some of the current rice crop may be affected
by the floods and there are possibilities of localised food supply difficulties
emerging.
Pakistan
Overall, the performance of the 1997 southwest monsoon has been somewhat
disappointing with a lack of significant moisture till August. In late
August, floods and landslides caused by heavy monsoon rainfall in Punjab
and North West Frontier Province killed over 140 people, displaced over
21 000 and resulted in extensive damage to property and crops, principally
rice and sugar cane. An estimated 52 000 hectares of crop land were destroyed
in Punjab, the main agricultural province in the country. Three of the
country’s five major rivers, the Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum, are still reported
to have exceptionally high water levels, which may result in further flooding
as the extra volume of water may damage dykes and embankments. Planting
of wheat, the country’s main food crop, will commence in October for harvest
next April/May. The 1997/98 target for wheat production is 18 million tons,
from around 8.2 million hectares, compared to production of 16.4 million
tons in 1996/97 and 16.9 million the previous year. The Government plans
to import 4 million tons of wheat in the 1997/98 marketing year to meet
demand and replenish buffer stocks.
Papua New Guinea
In response to a devastating drought, the most serious for fifty years,
the Government recently declared a state of emergency allocating an additional
US $14 million in aid to 19 of the country's 20 provinces as concern over
food shortages increases. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in the
coming months as water supplies for agriculture and human consumption are
expected to decline significantly. Large numbers of highlanders, who rely
on home gardens, are reported to be deserting villages in search for food
as drought has resulted in widespread bushfires destroying homes, crops,
grasslands and forests. Rivers and dams have also been severely depleted
in highland areas, which have been the worst affected by a combination
of four months of drought and serious frosts. The areas most affected include
Enga and southern and western Highland provinces, where extensive damage
to the sweet potato crop has left communities with severely reduced food
supplies and planting material. These regions are also the most vulnerable
to food shortages as there are limited alternative foods available and
no cash crops to generate income to allow food purchases. In addition to
these areas, communities in the upper Fly River, especially those around
Kjunga, are experiencing difficulties in meeting food needs as the main
river supply line is no longer functioning due to the drought and seriously
reduced water levels. Several atolls and small island communities in various
provinces are also reported to be in need of assistance.
Although there is possibility of some rainfall later in the year, overall
serious drought conditions are likely to continue into December or January
1998 and possibly to March. The food supply and water situation, therefore,
is likely to deteriorate significantly. So far official reports indicate
that between 700 000 to one million people have been affected by extreme
weather conditions and face food shortages. Unconfirmed reports indicate
that the country's 1997 coffee crop, a key export, will be reduced by up
to 50 percent by the drought, while damage to cocoa and palm oil is being
assessed.
Philippines
Various parts of the country have been devastated by the worst drought
in years and there are expectations that the southwest monsoon may end
prematurely this year. In northern parts of the country, rainfall has been
below-normal since May affecting major rice and maize growing areas. Elsewhere,
large portions of the country, including eastern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao,
experienced little rainfall throughout August and the number of tropical
storms across the country, which bring significant amounts of rainfall,
has been fewer than normal.
Current official projections estimate that the output of maize in 1997/98
will drop to 3.92 million tons compared to 4.22 million tons in the previous
marketing year. With current demand, the shortfall is estimated to be in
the region of 1.4 million tons.
As possible weather anomalies are expected to worsen later this year
around November/December, and the beginning of the northeast monsoon, the
Ministry of Agriculture has initiated programmes to limit the effects on
crops, including campaigns to promote the use of early maturing rice varieties,
which can be harvested in three months, and the distribution of organic
and inorganic fertilizers to enhance yields. In addition to possible cloud
seeding to prompt rain the Government has also increased irrigation capacity
through wells and water reservoirs throughout the country.
The current food situation is reported to be satisfactory as the country
has sufficient food stocks, particularly rice, for the rest of 1997. However,
the situation is being closely monitored and, depending on production in
the last quarter, for which planting begins October/November and harvesting
next year, there are indications that imports may increase. In mid September
the National Food Authority (NFA) was authorised to import 300 000 tons
of maize to mitigate the impact of a possible shortage.
Sri Lanka
In the second dekad of September, floods and landslides resulted in a number
of deaths and left several thousand people homeless in various parts of
the Island. Approximately 5 000 homeless people are being housed in temporary
relief camps. The water in the Kelani river is reported to be at dangerously
high levels and there is further risk of flooding, especially in low-lying
areas. Rice production from this year's main 'maha' and second 'yala' crop
is expected to be around 1.68 million tons (milled equivalent), some 20
percent higher than last year's drought reduced crop. The country requires
some 2.17 million tons for rice utilisation and has an import requirement
of around 500 000 tons. Significant quantities of wheat are also imported.
In 1996 an estimated 913 000 tons came into the country compared to over
a million tons in 1995. Although the overall food supply situation remains
satisfactory, there are concerns regarding supplies to the displaced population
in parts of the north, especially around Kilinochchi district, where shortages
have been reported.
Thailand
A prolonged drought from April to July, and floods last month are expected
to result in a reduction in crop output this year. Maize is likely to be
affected most, whilst prospects for rice improved with rainfall in August.
In recent weeks, widespread rainfall over most of the country increased
moisture supplies for main-season crops.
In June official estimates projected rice and maize output for 1997/98
at 18.18 million tons and 4.52 million tons, whilst current projections
put output at 17.84 million tons and 4.15 million tons respectively. The
drought mainly affected foodcrops, sugar cane and coffee whilst the floods
affected rubber, palm oil and shrimp production. The floods also resulted
in a number of human casualties and left several thousand people homeless.
Viet Nam
No specific reports of serious weather anomalies affecting agriculture
have been received. In early September, the development of the main 10th
month rice may have been affected somewhat by excessive wet conditions
and flooding. However, more recently the wet conditions eased in northern
parts, whilst drier, warmer weather benefited maturing rice across southern
parts. Overall the food supply situation is satisfactory and the Government
target for rice exports this year remains 3.5 million tons, of which some
2.7 million tons has already been exported.
| This report is prepared on the responsibility
of the FAO Secretariat with information from official and unofficial sources
and is for official use only. Since conditions may change rapidly, please
contact Mr. Abdur Rashid, Chief, ESCG, FAO, (Telex 610181 FAO I; Fax: 0039-6-5705-4495,
E-Mail (INTERNET): [email protected]) for further information if required.
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