S P E C I A L   A L E R T ¹

NO. 310

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO TAJIKISTAN

27 July 2000

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING

3. FACTORS AFFECTING FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2000

• 3.1 Water Availability - Rainfall and Snowfall
• 3.2 Farm Inputs
• 3.3 Area planted
• 3.4 Cereal Yields and Production
• 3.5 Other Foodcrops
• 3.6 Cotton
• 3.7 Livestock

4. SITUATION BY REGION

• 4.1 Khatlon Oblast (Province)
• 4.2 Leninabad Oblast
• 4.3 RRS
• 4.4 GBAO

5. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS, 2000/01

6. FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS

• 6.1 Role of Food Aid
• 6.2 Household Coping Mechanisms
• 6.3 Estimated Caseload and Emergency Food Aid Requirements in 2000/01
• 6.4 Food Aid Logistics


7. MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM MEASURES FOR AGRICULTURAL REHABILITATION

1. OVERVIEW

Cereal production in Tajikistan increased significantly during 1995-97 following the introduction of a policy of allowing relative decision-making freedom, particularly to the newly-created private farms under a land reform programme, to increase the area under foodcrop production. Following this policy, wheat cultivation increased significantly and, in 1997, a bumper wheat output was harvested. But since then, a declining trend in cereal production ensued. The causes include the disruption caused by civil strife, lack of availability of quality seed, breakdown or deterioration of irrigation systems, and old agricultural machinery going out of commission or performing poorly. On top of all these, a severe drought hit the country in 2000 as a consequence of lack of rains and much reduced snowfall in the preceding winter. It is against this background that an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was fielded to Tajikistan from 3-26 July 2000 to estimate the 2000 cereal harvest and cereal import requirement, including food aid needs, for the marketing year 2000/01.

The Mission visited many districts, including worst affected areas, in three of the country's four provinces. Necessary field information was collected from the fourth province by a staff member of WFP detailed for the purpose. The Mission held extensive discussions with Government officials at central, provincial, district and local levels; officials and members of collective (kolkhoz) and state (sovkhoz) farms; private (dekhan) farmers; personnel of UN agencies and NGO functionaries. Area and yield estimates and forecasts contained in this report are based on insights obtained from these discussions as well as observations and analyses of field conditions including the availability and quality of inputs and the performance of weather.

During its extensive field visits the Mission observed that both winter and spring rainfed wheat crop, harvested during June-July, had almost totally failed in most places as a result of drought. Drought has also affected barley production and is severely constraining planting and outlook of other secondary crops (rice, maize). The irrigated wheat has also been affected, often severely, by the drought. Water levels in rivers and canals have been much less throughout this year compared to normal flows, seriously constraining scope of irrigation. The problem was compounded by the poor condition of the irrigation systems due to lack of maintenance. Lack of availability of quality seeds has been another bedevilling factor. Indeed, the impact of drought this year has been particularly severe as it has hit when agriculture has already been in decline as a result of intensifying problems relating to seed availability and decaying irrigation facilities.

The Mission estimates the 2000 total cereal output at 236 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent compared to 1999. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 787 000 tonnes. After taking into account a projected commercial import of 400 000 tonnes and the pledged food aid of 74 000 tonnes, the uncovered gap remains at 313 000 tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude for this impoverished country, if not addressed by the international community, could have disastrous implications for the population.

Given that an estimated 85 percent of the population is poor, the very large drop in cereal production this year spells very bleak prospects for a very large proportion of the population. Many are already in dire conditions and the situation will worsen for increasing numbers in coming months as they exhaust whatever cereal output they have gathered or will gather as well as other means of coping that they may possess. An estimated 3 million people fall in this category, with about 2 million facing a desperate plight. Thus, with access to food through self production steeply reduced or destroyed and with virtually no means (inadequate employment opportunities and other sources of income) of accessing food through markets, these people cannot meet their basic minimum nutritional requirements during 2000/01, unless assistance is provided by the international community.

Even if rainfall and snowfall improve next year, the next wheat crop will not be available until June-July 2001. However, if rains fail again, emergency assistance to Tajikistan for the purpose of life saving alone would involve much larger operations. The evolving critical food supply and cereal production conditions and access of the needy to food need to be monitored carefully with a view to making adjustments to the ongoing assistance programmes and/or designing appropriate new ones.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING²

Tajikistan is a landlocked country of 143 000 sq.km and shares borders with China in the East, Afghanistan in the south, Kyrgyzstan in the north and Uzbekistan in the west. Only 7 percent (about 960 000 ha) is arable. The rest is mountainous and lies above 3 000 metres of altitude (about 50 percent) or deserts. The climatic conditions vary by region and altitude - from hot, dry plains to high, glacial mountains. Tajikistan has a large number of glaciers comprising about 60 percent of all glaciers in Central Asia, which serve as major water reserves for the country's rivers. Like many southern Central Asian countries, Tajikistan is prone to severe earthquakes as it lies in an active seismic belt.

Tajikistan is the least developed country and its GNP per capita, estimated at US$330 in 1998, was the lowest among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and lower than that of many least developed countries. The Tajik economy has undergone rapid decline since the collapse of the former USSR. The 1998 GDP per capita is only about 40 percent of the 1990 level. A GDP growth of 2 percent in 1997 and 5.8 percent in 1998 has been recorded but it will require serious restructuring of the economy before sustained growth can be realized. Although Tajikistan prior to its independence in 1991 was the poorest republics of the former USSR, its citizens enjoyed a relatively high living standard in that period due to the subsidies received from Moscow. But their living conditions have declined sharply since then. World Bank estimates show that 85 percent of the population is now poor. In terms of UNDP's HDI (Human Development Index), as of 1999, Tajikistan is ranked 108 out of 174 countries.

Following the collapse of the former USSR in 1991 and the independence of Tajikistan, a civil war broke out which devastated an already fragile economy and its infrastructure. Tens of thousands of people were killed, more than half a million people fled into neighbouring countries and another half a million were internally displaced. A peace agreement was reached in 1997, but a cohesive social order is yet to emerge. Security still remains problematic in places and at times. The results of presidential and parliamentary elections that took place during the first quarter of this year have been widely accepted and regarded as a real sign of hope of sustained peace and reconciliation and the beginning of rebuilding and reconstruction.

Industrial production now accounts for about 20 percent of the GDP and is dependent upon imported raw materials and equipment from other CIS countries. The sector has, however, been in decline, in step with the general economic upheavals and decline. The collapse of the Tajik Rouble in 1993 seriously undermined the already fragile economy. During the Soviet era, industrial production was running at 70-95 percent of capacity, but now it is less than 30 percent. Many factories such as textiles, silk and refrigeration plants have been closed and the country is now exporting unprocessed materials. Unprocessed aluminium is the largest export earner, followed by cotton. Other exports are coal, silk and carpets. Mineral deposits exist but have remained unexploited due to constraints relating to investment, climate and the high mountainous terrain.

Agriculture is the most important economic activity. It accounts for 30 to 40 percent of the GDP, about 30 percent of export earnings and 30-40 percent of tax revenues. More than 50 percent of the formal employment is in the agricultural sector. This sector has undergone a rapid decline and is now, even in normal years, producing at about 60 percent of 1990 levels. Tajikistan is classified as a Low-Income Food-Deficit Country, and has the lowest cereal production per capita among the CIS countries. Although about 38 percent of the land is considered to be rainfed and the remaining 62 percent under irrigation, in practice, the proportion irrigated is significantly lower (perhaps about 50 percent), as explained in section 3.1 below. During the war, parts of the intricate irrigation canals were damaged and pumps and other farm equipment destroyed or stolen. Therefore, the irrigation systems are not functioning at all or at full capacity. The many years of neglect and lack of maintenance of irrigation systems have also led to salinity problems in certain places and contributed to the poor performance of the agricultural sector.

3. FACTORS AFFECTING FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2000

3.1 Water Availability - Rainfall and Snowfall

Water availability was highly reduced this year due to an extremely poor performance of rainfall during the year and much reduced snowfall during the last winter.

Figures 1-4 depict the extremely poor rainfall in 2000 compared to long-term average -- total as well as for the three months (March, April and May) of the rainy season separately. The total rainfall in the year was 45 percent below average in all areas except one (60 percent), mostly in the range of 20-35 percent. The worst month was May when 9 out of 11 stations recorded zero rainfall, with the other two experiencing about 50 percent of the average for the month. As a result, rainfed wheat (both winter and spring)³ in all parts of the country received little or no water during crucial plant growth stages.

The country's irrigation systems are largely surface-waterbased. Only in a few areas is ground water also used for this purpose. To a large extent melting snows are the source of surface water that feeds the country's river and irrigation systems. But this year, extremely low rainfall was preceded by a much reduced snowfall compared to normal. As a result, water availability in rivers and canals declined sharply, seriously limiting irrigation possibilities and also reducing the scope of hydro-electric power generation, which in turn caused irrigation pump failures, thereby further reducing supply of irrigation water to crops.

Also, there appears to be some confusion regarding irrigated lands. There are areas which used to be irrigated years ago, but these may not be categorized as irrigated now since the relevant irrigation canals and pumps are not functional any more. During field visits the Mission members observed such discrepancies in many places. Also, cotton is given priority in terms of irrigation water supply. Hence, a significant proportion of lands under cereal crops that was once irrigated is no longer so in practice under the prevailing conditions. Thus, although theoretically irrigated area is put at about 62 percent, in practice about 50 percent of the total area under cereal crops may be considered irrigated. Even in these areas, limited water availability has often been a serious constraint this year.

This year's drought is claimed to be the worst in 74 years. Lack of precipitation has indeed resulted in almost total failure of rainfed wheat crop and, coupled with low snowfall and problems relating to irrigation systems, has also caused a very significant drop in the irrigated wheat yield.

Note: These stations are dispersed in all provinces/regions: Dushanbe (Capital city); Hissor and Isanboy in RSS region; Qairokum, Panjrakent and Uro-teppa in Leninabad province; Khurghou-teppa and Khovaling in Khatlon province; and Khorugh, Rushon and Ishkoshim in GBAO region.

3.2 Farm Inputs

Seeds:

Non-availability of quality seeds is a major problem facing the agriculture sector and is a major factor behind low yields. Wheat and other cereal seeds used are mostly from local production. Last year, 2000 tonnes of wheat seed was provided by U.S.A. A few NGOs have wheat seed distribution programmes, but these are altogether (1 000 tonnes or less) negligible in relation to the total needs. For wheat alone, the total annual seed requirement is about 66 000 tonnes.

There is no scientific seed multiplication programme of consequence in the country. A Scientific Plant Cultivation Research Institute exists, located in Hissor district near Dushanbe with several branches in different provinces, which was making a useful contribution in terms of seed development, multiplication and distribution in the past. But its capacity has dwindled over the years and it is now unable to make a significant contribution. FAO has a small vegetable seed project in Khatlon province.

Towards rehabilitating Tajik agriculture, a major effort is needed for seed development (particularly of wheat varieties best suited to the conditions of the country), multiplication and distribution.

Fertilizers and pesticides:

Farmers' access to fertilizers was reported to be constrained more by their relatively high prices vis-à-vis purchasing power than by their availability, although there are supply shortages at times and in different parts of the country. The Mission learned, from interviews with farmers, that many farmers were not able to use fertilizers at all or in sufficient quantities this year. Availability of pesticides and fungicides is often very limited and their prices high; hence, farmers cannot often access them. The use of these chemicals has thus declined sharply in recent years, although in the past Tajikistan used high doses of pesticides and fungicides. Despite the drought, there has been no pest outbreak this year. Last year, though, pest outbreaks caused significant crop damages in several parts of the country.

Farm machinery and agricultural operations:

Historically, a mechanized agriculture was, by and large, developed under collective (Kolkhoz) and state (Sovkhoz) farms. But the same farm machinery (tractors, harvesters, pumps, sprays, trucks) have been in use for a long period. By now, much of the machinery is out of commission or in poor condition due to non-replacement, lack of maintenance and non-availability of spare parts. Human hands are now extensively used to perform various agricultural operations including land preparation. In the newly created dekhan farms, people without agricultural experience or expertise have become farmers and are, therefore, liable to make mistakes in the execution of various agricultural operations. The remaining collective and state farms are generally suffering from lack of resources, debts, and uncertainties as to future transformation.

3.3 Area planted

With cereal production declining since 1997, an effort was underway to increase the area planted to wheat crop for harvest in June-July 2000. Accordingly, plantings for the 2000 winter wheat were started some 3 weeks early. But reduced water availability frustrated these efforts, perhaps relatively more so in the case of spring wheat planted in February-March 2000. However, the reduction in the total area under wheat was limited to about 7 percent compared to 1999. Area under all cereals is forecast to be down by about 8 percent compared to 1999.

As a consequence of drought, areas under potato and vegetables are, according to available evidence, also down compared to last year. Although an estimate is not yet available, there are clear indications that the area planted to cotton has also declined this year, despite the top priority given to cotton which is the country's second largest export earner after aluminium.

3.4 Cereal Yields and Production

Wheat:

Wheat yield has been low in Tajikistan, having declined over the years as a result of problems relating to the availability of quality seeds and the functioning of irrigation systems; obsolete farm machinery; and limited access to fertilizers, pesticides and fungicides.

Drought this year has dealt a further and severe blow. The rainfed wheat crop has virtually failed in all regions of the country. The Mission saw widespread evidence (burnt fields, for example) of this during its extensive field visits. In certain areas, a harvest, sometimes not even equal to the amount of seeds planted (200 kg of seeds/ha is used in Tajikistan), has been collected. On the irrigated lands (about 50 percent of the total wheat area, as indicated earlier), yield has varied depending on the availability, quantity and timing of irrigation water and the effectiveness of the irrigation systems. Location of plots has had important bearing on yields - more water could be extracted towards the head of a canal system, leaving less and less for plots successively lower down. Field observations (such as extremely low tillering, very limited heading and few and small grains in the ripe spikes) and estimations indicate that for rainfed areas (50 percent of total), an average yield of 150 kg/ha and for irrigated areas, an average yield of 1250 kg/ha in Leninabad, RRS and GBAO regions, and respectively 100 kg/ha and 1100 kg/ha in Khatlon province are most likely to have been realized. That is, on average, the wheat yield/ha has been 700 kg/ha in Leninabad, RRS and GBAO and 600 kg/ha in Khatlon. For the country as a whole, on average, the estimated wheat yield is down to 57 percent of that realized in 1999 (Table 1), which was itself somewhat lower than in the previous year as a result of, among other reasons, brown pest outbreak in certain areas.

The 2000 wheat output is estimated at 194 000 tonnes, down by 47 percent from the previous year's level and by 53 percent from the average of the previous 3 years (1997-99).

Barley:

Based on field observations and information collected from farmers and others, the Mission also estimates a significant reduction in the area under barley, as well as in yield per hectare due to drought.

Maize and Paddy:

These secondary crops were in the ground at the time of the Mission. In view of a much reduced wheat crop in prospect, the Government encouraged increased planting of secondary crops, particularly maize, as a coping mechanism.

Maize cultivation has been emphasized also because of the reduced fodder crop, as maize is usually fed to animals. But again, as was clear from field observations, shortage of irrigation water will frustrate their effort to increase maize production, by significantly reducing the yield. The forecast maize output is down by about 50 percent compared to the previous two years. Paddy is often grown near rivers and canals and, hence, is somewhat better placed for access to irrigation water. The Mission estimates that, while the area under paddy would remain the same as last year's, yield may be slightly down, resulting in an output of about 83 percent of last year's harvest.

The details of the Mission estimate of cereal production in 2000 by region are shown in Table 1.

Cereal Production, 1991-2000:

Figure 5 shows Tajikistan's historical data on the production of all cereals and, separately, of wheat, the main cereal crop. The output of all cereals was 300 000 tonnes in 1991 when the country still received large food assistance from Moscow. During 1991-1996, the output declined somewhat as the country became independent, and protracted civil strife ensued. But, as the food crisis intensified, the Government to some extent encouraged and facilitated production of cereals, particularly wheat, resulting in a bumper wheat crop in 1997. But, this level of output proved to be unsustainable due to economic problems, low purchasing power, shortage of quality seeds and the poor state of irrigation system. The severe drought has exacerbated the structural problems and resulted in a very sharp drop in the yield and output of wheat and other cereals.

Table 1 - Tajikistan: Area, Yield and Production by Region - 1998, 1999 and Forecast for 2000

Note: 2000 output is the estimate made by the Mission.

3.5 Other Foodcrops

Potato:

Potato usually accounts for about 1.5 percent (10 000-12 000 ha) of the total annual sown area as field observations of the Mission indicate that the potato yield outlook (compared to last year, for example) is relatively better compared to wheat, as the crop is often sown in small plots and as a result of particular attention being given to this crop by individual farmers as a coping mechanism. The forecast potato output in 2000 is some 13 percent less than in the previous year due to the combined effect of area and yield reductions.

Vegetables:

Area under vegetables is usually 3.5 - 4 percent of the country's total annual sown area. As in the case of potato, the projected output of vegetables is down compared to last year, but only by about 9 percent in view of individual farmers' special attention given to the growing of vegetables as a means of coping in the wake of severe food shortages.

Fruits:

Horticultural areas with fruit trees have been hit badly by the drought in different parts of the country. During its field visits, the Mission observed apple and other fruit trees in poor condition, even dying in many areas. Apple, grape, peach and apricot are the main fruits grown. However, fruit trees are costly investments, which take several years to replace. The Mission has been informed by individual farmers and officials of collective and state farms that more emphasis is being given to protecting fruit trees in the context of the utilization of the limited water available. Hence, it is unlikely that a substantial loss of fruit trees will take place during this year, although production of fruit is likely to decline significantly.

3.6 Cotton

Cotton is Tajikistan's major cash crop and the country's second largest export earner after aluminium. It has, on average, occupied about a third of the l sown area during 1994-99. It is given top priority by the Government. Collective and state farms are required to devote resources - land, water and other inputs - as per plan requirements. The newly created private farmers are also, generally, obliged to produce cotton as per Government instructions.

Irrigation water is often to be provided to cotton on a priority basis. There are signs of this policy stance being relaxed in favour of increased allocation of land and water to cereal production in future, given the ever increasing food shortages. Despite the usual priority attention given to cotton this year, the drought has adversely affected cotton production. The Mission saw very poor cotton crops in the ground in many places as a result of irrigation water shortages and/or non-functioning/poorly functioning irrigation systems. A tentative forecast puts the 2000 cotton output at 260 000 tonnes, about 18 percent less than that harvested in 1999. The output reduction is due to the combined effect of reductions in planted area and yield, with yield relatively more affected than area.

Note: 2000 production is a tentative forecast.

3.7 Livestock

As of 1 January 1999, the estimated number of cattle was 1.04 million and that of sheep and goats 2.2 million. The animals are now mostly owned privately by households - some 70 percent in the case of sheep and goats and about 85 percent in the case of cattle. The collective/state sector had a larger share (47 percent overall) earlier, though. But over the years, its share declined (to 25 percent overall) as that of the private sector increased (to 75 percent overall). The livestock of all types declined sharply since 1991 when there were 1.35 million cattle and 3.29 million sheep and goats. Consequently, the production of meat and dairy products also declined.

The reasons for such declines in livestock include reduced capacity of the households to maintain them. The problems include reduced access to pasture and fodder as well as to veterinary services and protection against diseases. Fodder production has declined due to land diversion in line with a general agricultural decline in recent years, and a diversion of land to cereals, due to problems relating to inputs and irrigation. Veterinarians, employed in district veterinary stations or collective/state farms, are not paid regularly and do not have adequate supplies of equipment, vaccines and medicines. Hence, many private customers cannot access the veterinarian services either because they are not available or because they are too expensive.

An average rural household owns a few heads of cattle and/or sheep/goat. This year many have sold out some of those as they cannot provide necessary fodder to the animals on the one hand and need the cash for acquiring cereals for the household members on the other. The Mission was informed by farmers interviewed that they would try to sell some, or all, of their remaining livestock as a coping mechanism to avert starvation for as long as possible.

No significant deaths of livestock resulting from drought has been reported. However, in certain parts of the country, foot and mouth disease exists which, unless addressed through appropriate measures, could lead to a disastrous livestock situation.

Table 2 - Tajikistan: Livestock (`000 heads) by Type, Number and Ownership, 1991 and 1999

4. SITUATION BY REGION

The 2000 drought has affected the whole country. In each region, there are several districts which have been very severely hit, while other districts have also been affected in different degrees.

4.1 Khatlon Oblast (Province)

Khatlon accounts for about 35 percent (2.15 million) of the country's total population. The area under food crops in Khatlon is the largest among the four regions. In 2000, this province planted 170 000 hectares to wheat (or 56 percent of the total area under wheat in the country). Twelve out of 25 districts are severely affected; and several others are also food insecure.

Khatlon constitutes the south-west region of the country and mostly consists of lowland areas. It has very hot summers and cold winters, and depends on irrigation on a large scale for agricultural production. But the province's irrigation systems are generally in poor condition due to pump breakdown, silted or breached canals and problems relating to electricity supply. Soils in many parts of the province are relatively poor in organic matter. Salinity of top soil is also a problem in this province.

The Mission visited several severely drought affected districts and observed its devastating effects on crops and, hence, on the livelihoods of the people. The rainfed wheat crop has almost totally failed in most areas. Irrigated crops have also been affected in various places and to various degrees, but, on the whole, substantially. The average wheat yield in this province is estimated at 600 kg/ha and is the lowest compared to other regions. The area planted to wheat is down by about 9 percent compared to 1999.

The estimated numbers of people who are most affected and those out of them who are critically in need of food assistance in 2000/01 in this province are, respectively, 1.33 million and 0.84 million (Table 6).

4.2 Leninabad Oblast

This northern province contains about 30.5 percent of the country's population. In 2000, the area under wheat in this province accounted for about 20 percent of the total area under wheat in the country. Nine out of 18 districts in this province have been severely drought affected this year. Other districts have also suffered to various degrees.

Except the extreme north which contains low land areas, this province is mountainous with varying levels of elevation. This province is economically better off compared to the other regions as more industries exist here than elsewhere. But many industries are now in decline, due to problems relating to management and the markets (lost following the collapse of U.S.S.R.).

In different districts of the province visited, the Mission found the rainfed wheat crop a total failure in most cases. Irrigated wheat has also been affected. However, water from snowmelt, although reduced compared to normal, has provided much needed water to crops in some places. Considering all factors that affected both rainfed and irrigated wheat, the Mission estimates an average yield of 700 kg/ha for the province as a whole.

The estimated area planted to wheat is down by about 9 percent compared to 1999. The estimated number of people who are most drought affected and those among them who are critically in need of food assistance in this province in 2000/01 are, respectively, 0.94 million and 0.60 million (Table 6).

4.3 RRS

RRS (Regions under Republican Subordination) is in the central part of the country. This region accounts for about 22 percent of the country's population. Including Dushanbe City, the population reaches 31 percent of the official total. The effect of drought in this region is similarly severe as elsewhere. The estimated area planted to wheat in this region was down by about 9 percent compared to 1999 and average yield is estimated at 700 kg/ha.

The number of people who are most affected by drought and those among them who are critically in need of food assistance in this region in 2000/01 have been estimated at 0.61 million and 0.39 million respectively (Table 6).

4.4 GBAO

GBAO (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast) is located in the east. It is mountainous, where the Pamirs reach a peak of 7,400 meters. Only a small part of this region is arable and that too is mostly terraces. It is a very thinly populated region accounting for only about 3.4 percent of the country's population. Its cereal production is also small. Drought has substantially reduced the yields of cereals, particularly of wheat, this year. Hence, the production of wheat is estimated to be significantly down, compared to 1999, although the area planted is estimated to be about 17 percent up.

The number of people who are most affected by drought and those among them who are critically in need of food assistance in this region in 2000/01 have been estimated at 0.12 million and 0.74 million respectively (Table 6).

5. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS, 2000/01

The cereal balance for 2000/01 (Table 3) is based on an estimated population of 6.22 million and the following assumptions reflecting Tajik norms:

• A per caput cereal consumption of 146 kg/person/annum⁴.
• Seed requirements are based on areas likely to be planted next year and seeding rates used in Tajikistan of 200 kg/ha for wheat, 180 kg/ha for paddy, 200 kg/ha for barley and 25 kg/ha for maize. Even in the current drought-affected year, total area planted is only 8 percent down on 1999 and 9 percent down on 1998. It is assumed that farmers will try to plant as much as possible next year, equalling last year's total (wheat: 330 000 ha; barley: 25 000 ha; maize: 18 000 ha; paddy: 10 000 ha; making up a total of 383 000 ha).
• Post harvest losses are assumed to be 12 percent for all crops. Although maize is usually used as feed, it has been assumed that some maize will also be consumed by humans this year in view of severe food shortages.
• Stock draw-down and build-up, if any, have been assumed to be equal in size in the absence of any data on this.
• Reliable data on commercial imports of cereals in previous years are not available. Reflected imports, mainly from Kazakhistan, indicate that an average of 300 000 tonnes have been imported commercially since 1994/95. However, in 1999/2000 an estimated 400 000 tonnes of wheat and wheat flour in wheat equivalent were commercially imported and it is assumed that a similar quantity will be mobilized in 2000/01.⁵

Table 3 - Tajikistan: Cereal Balance Sheet, 2000/01 (`000 tonnes)

1/ Commitment made by USA: 65 000 tonnes. WFP Pipeline: 9 354 tonnes as of July 2000.

The total cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is estimated at a very high level of 787 000 tonnes (77 percent of the total requirement). Provided that commercial imports of 400 000 tonnes materialize and given a pledged food aid of 74 000 tonnes, the estimated uncovered food supply gap in 2000/01 is 313 000 tonnes. A gap of this level could have disastrous consequences for the entire population. It is recommended that this gap be met through both emergency and programme aid. As will be shown in the next section, over 3 million people (half the official population of the country) face hardship and starvation and about 2 million critically so for much of 2000/01. The food (wheat) aid requirement for these critically affected people is estimated at approximately 136 000 tonnes, which may constitute the emergency food aid component, leaving 177 000 tonnes to be covered by programme food aid.

The cereal deficit situation, in 2000/01, by region is shown in table 4. It varies from 68 percent to 82 percent among regions, with the overall national deficit being 77 percent.

Table 4 - Tajikistan: Cereal Production in Relation to Requirement, 2000 (forecast)

* Includes Dushanbe City

6. FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS

6.1 Role of Food Aid

The five-year long civil war and the natural disasters in the form of earthquakes during the mid 1990s devastated an already ailing and fragile economy. The decline in productivity over the years and the low revenue resource base, dependent upon the taxation of crop production, makes it very difficult for the Government to respond to any emergencies. The drought that has adversely affected crop production including cotton will further reduce the size of an already small revenue receipt of the Government. Tajikistan is already receiving food relief from the World Food Programme and NGOs, an indication of the inability of the Government to provide for its most needy citizens. The Government has written to the Secretary-General of the United Nations requesting international assistance to avert a looming famine in the wake of the drought.

The World Food Programme has been providing food assistance to Tajikistan since 1993. Between 1993 and 1999, a total of 116 623 metric tonnes has been provided to victims of the civil war including pensioners, widowed households, invalids and people in institutions. In 1996, WFP initiated a number of food for work activities which included a land lease programme. The land lease programme has helped the most food insecure households to have access to land for self food production. Since 1996, WFP has helped rehabilitate close to 10 000 hectares of land through its food for work activities. WFP Tajikistan is currently implementing a one year Protracted Relief Recovery Operation (PRRO) that aims to reach 370 000 beneficiaries and distribute about 50,082 tonnes of food. However, only about 20 000 tonnes is likely to be distributed and half of the beneficiaries reached this year as the PRRO has not received sufficient funding.

6.2 Household Coping Mechanisms

The major livelihood strategy for rural households is crop production with little opportunities for diversifying income outside agriculture. Agriculture accounts for up to 50 percent of formal employment in Tajikistan. Even urban households participate in the agricultural production. About 84 percent of all households have access to a kitchen garden (presidential land), which they use to produce some foodcrops, including vegetables and fruits, for self consumption. But this accounts for only a tiny proportion of their food needs.

Unemployment is high, ranging from 18 percent in Khatlon to 44 percent in Leninabad, according to official data. The private sector is small and is primarily providing employment in retail trade, restaurants and construction. Government by far is the largest employer and the state farms are the largest source of employment for many. Due to severe budgetary constraints of the Government, many employees have been unpaid for up to 10 months during the last one year. Many skilled professionals are leaving the country to look for employment in the neighbouring countries and beyond.

Due to loss of employment and decline in production, many households face seasonal food shortages even in a normal year. The World Bank poverty assessment of 1999 shows significant dietary changes taking place even before this drought occurred. Many households were unable to meet their food needs and already adopted a variety of coping mechanisms to that end. As of 1999, up to 85 percent of households had already changed their food consumption pattern and were switching to cheaper foods. About 44 percent of households had reduced the number of meals and 30 percent were consuming smaller portions. Even among the well-off households, one in three had reduced the number of meals and another one-third were eating smaller portions. Other coping strategies included selling of assets (28 percent of households) and borrowing (34 percent).

An earlier study conducted by ECHO in 1997 found similar results. It is not surprising therefore that the incidence of malnutrition is high; 41 percent of the children were stunted while 14 percent had acute malnutrition in 1999. In a normal situation, levels of malnutrition are not expected to be higher than 2-3 percent. Incidence of anaemia is high among women and children. It is acknowledged however that problems of nutrition are not only due to food insecurity but also due to the health environment of the households. Inadequate access to clean and safe water and sanitation for many households contribute to the poor child nutritional status in Tajikistan.

Many households have exhausted their coping capabilities; often they have absolutely no alternative sources of income to make up for the loss of harvest and income. Some households have planted second crops, usually maize. However, chances of a good harvest are low on the second crop as the water levels in the canals and rivers are low and irrigation pumps are not functioning properly due both to their poor state of repair and disrupted electricity supply. Households that still have cows are planning to sell the animals to meet the family food needs. Many men are planning to borrow money and migrate to the Russian Federation to look for employment. However, most households are aware that employment opportunities in Russia are shrinking and realise the difficulties in finding employment but still see this to be as the only option out. Many of those who have left for Russia and found work are employed in low paying jobs and are unable to remit money to the families they left behind. Many have failed to find any kind of job and are unable to come back.

Many women have been facing severe difficulties as a legacy of the civil war. They found themselves widowed or separated from husbands because men were killed or fled into exile. UNDP estimates a total of 25 000 widowed women, each with an average of five children and about 55 000 orphaned children. Many of the affected women have taken recourse to begging, along with their children. Some women look for firewood, which they sell to other households. The drought is resulting in added difficulties and burden for these hapless female-headed households. More women are likely to be left behind with children as men go away to look for employment.

Deprivation being as deep and wide as indicated above, the large reduction in this year's harvest is likely to have a devastating impact on the people of Tajikistan. As many as 2-3 million rural population have been seriously affected by the drought and will require international assistance to meet their food needs. The high levels of malnutrition and poverty are quite evident in many areas. The period between October 2000 and May 2001 is most critical, as the households would have depleted their food stocks in the next 2 - 3 months. All districts are affected but 36 (out of a total of 65) are most severely so. Table 5 lists the worst affected districts in the four provinces of the country.

Table 5: Tajikistan - The Worst Affected Districts by Region

6.3 Estimated Caseload and Emergency Food Aid Requirements in 2000/01

At the household level, it is difficult to separate households by severity, as households tend to work within the framework of farm associations or as collective/state farm workers. Nevertheless, the worst affected are farms that depend wholly or primarily upon rainfall and have little or no access to irrigation facilities. Households depending upon rainfall have lost the entire crop.

Table 6: Tajikistan - Number of People Critically in Need of Food Assistance and the Amount of Wheat Required as Food Assistance, 2000/01

Even farms that have access to irrigation have been seriously affected, due to shortages of irrigation water or ineffective means of using the available water. The Mission estimates that 30-50 percent of the households that have access to irrigation facilities have lost up to 50 percent of their production and will require food assistance. Table 6 shows the number of people most affected by the drought and those critically in need of food assistance, along with the amount of iron fortified wheat flour that would be required for the critically needy people for six months. In addition to a ration of about 400g of wheat flour per person per day for the affected population, it is recommended that a full ration that includes pulses and oil be provided to prevent a further increase in the already high levels of malnutrition.

6.4 Food Aid Logistics

Under the PRRO 06087.00, WFP-Tajikistan operates regular movements of food; around 30 000 tonnes are expected to be moved during 2000.

The additional tonnage planned for the EMOP, of approximately 136 000 tonnes, will be distributed under an expanded logistics network. The current logistics network is composed of two trans-shipment warehouses outside of Tajikistan (Termez and Osh), two sub-offices and one field office and 5 in-country warehouses (Kolkhozobad and Shaartuz in Kahtion province, Murgab and Khorog in GBAO and Khujand, Leninabad province).

The total amount of food to be moved by WFP-Tajikistan up to June 2001 is expected to be around 180 000 tonnes (EMOP of 136 000 tonnes of wheat/wheat flour, plus about 20 000 tonnes of pulses and other foodstuffs, as well as remaining 25 000 tonnes for the ongoing PRRO). In order to accommodate the increased quantity of food, WFP warehouses in Tajikistan will need to be re-enforced by additional storage space and transport capacity.

WFP currently uses a transport corridor, which operates via the Baltic Sea ports (Riga), from where the food consignments are forwarded by rail to trans-shipment sites at Termez (Uzbekistan), Osh (Kyrgyzstan), or directly into Tajikistan.

The storage capacity of the trans-shipment points in Osh and Termez will have to be increased, in light of the additional tonnage and the requirements for the ongoing Afghan emergency operation.

Transportation from WFP warehouses to areas affected by drought, of which some are located in mountainous districts, which are not easily accessible, will be difficult in view of the nature of the terrain and the harsh climatic conditions during the winter months. Food, therefore, needs to be pre-positioned before the winter.

In order to deliver commodities to all affected areas, it is expected that in addition to the transport capacity of private contractors, WFP-Tajikistan will set up a fleet of UN trucks to be employed at full capacity. These will be small trucks capable of reaching remote areas.

7. MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM MEASURES FOR AGRICULTURAL REHABILITATION

Towards rehabilitating and improving the performance of the agriculture sector and thereby reducing food deficits, the following medium to longer term measures are strongly recommended:

• Development of a policy and regulatory framework promoting the rational management of water resources.
• A major emphasis on rehabilitating and enhancing the irrigation systems by cleaning up sitted canals, repairing breached over-land canals and repairing or replacing irrigation pumps.
• Ground water abstraction for irrigation in suitable areas by installing tubewells, with due care regarding sustainability of water table, to supplement surface water irrigation.
• Development, multiplication and distribution of quality wheat and other cereal seeds through an Integrated Crop and Food Production Programme.
• Acceleration of the ongoing land reform programme to expand private farming and remove uncertainties in the agricultural sector.

This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and unofficial sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required.
Abdur Rashid Chief, GIEWS FAO Telex 610181 FAO I Fax: 0039-06-5705-4495 E-mail:[email protected]	Ms. J. Cheng-Hopkins Regional Director, OAE, WFP Telex: 626675 WFP 1 Fax: 0039-06-6513-2863 E-Mail: [email protected]
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