| D R A F T (15.10.82) | FI:DP/HUN/79/001 Field Document 4 October 1982 |
A report prepared for the
Development of Intensive Freshwater Fishculture Project
by
U.N. Wijkström
Aquaculture Economist
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Rome, 1982
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3. Need for standardized economic analysis
4. Computer based system for economic analysis of fish culture activities
4.1.2 Balance sheet and profit and loss statement
4.1.3 Identification of optimum systems
4.2.3 The concept ‘culture bit’ as a tool for observation of culture systems
4.5 Organization for implementation of the computer-based system
4.6 Other uses of the aquaculture data bank
5. Recommendations for staged development of the system of FCRI
2.2 Basic Formats for Physical Data (BFPD)
2.3 Basic Formats for Economic Data Farm Related (BFEDF)
2.4 Basic Formats for Economic Data, National (BFEDN)
2.5 Standard Formats for Economic Information (SFEI)
3. Stage I of programming work
APPENDIX I:1 BASIC FORMATS FOR PHYSICAL DATA (BFPD)
APPENDIX I:2 BASIC FORMATS FOR ECONOMIC DATA FARM RELATED (BFEDF)
APPENDIX I:3 STANDARD FORMATS FOR ECONOMIC INFORMATION (SFEI)
2. Categories of ‘analytical contexts’
3. Principles for development of algorithms
3.1 Analytical context: B III/1: manager, short-term (production period) for culture bit
3.2 Analytical context B V/1: manager, long-term (investment decisions) for culture bit
ANNEX 3 Standard Economic Algorithms; Definitions and Procedures (Algorithms type D)
2. Calculation of net income per unit of capital (short-term)
3. Calculation of net income per unit of land (or pond area), short-term
4. Calculation of net income per unit of labour, short-term
5. Calculation of period required to recover investment through net income
The task. The consultant was requested to appraise how economic analysis can be used by Hungarian officials' to make better use of resources employed in Hungarian fish culture.
The need. It is the view of many familiar with the fish culture industry in Hungary that decision makers involved could employ economic analysis more stringently when allocating available resources amongst industry activities. However, the number of full time economists employed in the industry is low- and most persons concerned believe it is likely to remain so low. The consultant concluded, therefore, that the persons concerned will be unable to use economic analysis more effectively in the coming years unless a change is made in the manner in which economic analysis is carried out.
The concultant recommends that a concerned effort be made to introduce, in a systematic manner, a system for economic analysis which minimizes - but does not eliminate - the role of the economist.
Implication for system design. The system should, as far as possible, be of use also to people working in the fish culture industry, who do not have formal training in economics. Therefore it should (i) reduce the reliance on economists during the data collection and information generating phase (which must preceed all economic analysis); (ii) fit the needs of fish farm managers, manager of fish culture research and development activities, and, the needs of government planners and policy makers.
Details of proposed system for economic analysis. The bulk of the report describes the system and its use. Here follows a resumé of more essential characteristics. The system makes use of a computer for data storage and for arithmetical operations on data. There are two essential features of the way the computer will accept data on fish culture; first, it is uniform, that is, one group of matrixes will serve to receive the data for any and all types of aquaculture. This in effect is the same as stating that the system describes all fish culture activities in a uniform manner. The second feature (which in a say is a consequence of the first) is that the system will accept very detailed data, but that it can also be operated with economic information normally used as input data to economic analysis. As is, the system demands little more than that the aquaculturist records and reports what is actually happening. He need not concern himself with which data should, or should not, be included in an eventual economic analysis. Subsequently, the analysts can, once the data is in the computer, select the type of economic analysis he wants to perform on the data; his basic parameters of choice are the time frame (long-run versus short-run) and the perspective (fish farm manager or national planner). The report provides guidance on the design of data matrixes (used to receive data for storage) and on the formulation of algorithms (for ‘i’ performing algebraeic operations on numerical data, and ‘ii’ storing data in right ‘boxes’ in the matrixes).
Strength of proposed system. (i) The system is suited to accept in a continuing (on-line manner) information on fish culture activities, and will, when put into use, result in a detailed data base on fish culture for those farms which participate. (ii) With little modification, the system will serve as a base for a management information system for fish farm managers. (iii) The system is suited to be combined with programmes (software) already developed for various economic and financial analysis (e.g. calculation of IRR) for analyst directed sensitivity analysis (e.g. MANIP developed by the FAO investment centre), and for sub-routines intended for particular optimization problems (e.g. linear programming). (iv) The system is intended to aid in the analysis of both ‘enterprise optimization’ (but does not have the optimizing subroutine - unsurprisingly, as a general optimization routine does not yet seem to have been developed) and of ‘enterprise combination’ problems. (v) The methodology is suited also to farming activities other than fish farming.
Weakness of design. It will take considerable computer programming effort to get a workable system in operation. The degree to which standard data reporting systems on fish farms must be modified has not been asserted. The system does not include any general optimizing routines.
Future activities. The report suggests that work should be continued out on two fronts: data collection and computer programming, and that the Fish Culture Research Institute continues to be the focal point for this development work.