CFS:2004/2-Corr.1 |
|
CFS:2004/2-Corr.1 |
COMMITTEE ON WORLD FOOD SECURITY |
Thirtieth Session |
Rome, 20-23 September 2004 |
ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY SITUATION |
CORRIGENDUM |
Table 2 has been updated with more recent estimates of cereal market indicators.
|
Average |
2002/2003 |
2003/2004 |
2004/2005 |
1. Ratio of World Stocks to |
|
|
|
|
Wheat |
40.3 |
33.2 |
26.1 |
25.8 |
Coarse Grains |
24.0 |
17.0 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
Rice |
36.3 |
28.9 |
24.9 |
22.9 |
Cereals (total) |
31.5 |
24.4 |
20.5 |
20.0 |
2. Ratio of Five Major Grain Exporters Supplies to Normal Market Requirements |
1.22 |
1.09 |
1.16 |
1.31 |
3. Closing Stocks as a percentage of Total Disappearance of Major Exporters |
|
|
|
|
Wheat |
19.9 |
18.1 |
17.9 |
19.6 |
Coarse Grains |
16.3 |
12.6 |
10.4 |
11.1 |
Rice |
52.8 |
45.0 |
37.9 |
36.4 |
Cereals (total) |
29.7 |
25.2 |
22.1 |
22.4 |
|
Annual Trend |
Percentage Change from Previous Year | ||
1994-2003 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 | |
4. Changes in World Cereal Production |
0.64 |
-3.91 |
2.75 |
5.37 |
5. Changes in Cereal Production in the LIFDCs |
0.80 |
-2.37 |
1.97 |
2.99 |
6. Changes in Cereal Production in LIFDCs less China and India |
2.52 |
1.93 |
8.02 |
-1.55 |
|
|
Percentage Change from Previous Year | ||
|
|
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
7. Selected Cereal Price Indices |
|
|
|
|
Wheat (July/June) |
2.7 |
21.3 |
-1.1 | |
Maize (July/June) |
4.8 |
18.6 |
7.1 | |
Rice (Jan/Dec) |
-3.9 |
14.7 |
33.9 | |
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are China, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. For 2003/04, the indices are calculated based on average selected prices from the beginning of the seasons up to June 2004 for Wheat and Maize and up to August 2004 for Rice. Rice index refers to the second year shown.