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Mapping climate change in Iraq and Jordan

Climate change assessments are based on predictions, or - more accurately - projections of future conditions of temperature and precipitation in a given area. These projections are generated by very complex models, Global Circulation Models (or GCMs). There are three major hurdles in interpreting correctly the results from these models: (i) there are several GCMs that do not yield similar results for the same locations; (ii) their resolution is very coarse, hence they can provide unique projections only for very large areas, thus ignoring local specificity, and (iii) GCMs operate on assumptions of future greenhouse gas emissions (a.k.a. ‘scenarios’), therefore their outputs refer to divergent futures. The GIS studies, summarized in this Working Paper, offer an approach for dealing with the above challenges: they provide a downscaling method for making the GCM projections location-specific, incorporate different GCM models, and include different scenarios for the future.

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Editor: International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)
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Autor: Eddy De Pauw
Otros autores: Muna Saba, and Sabah H. Ali
Organización: International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)
Otras organizaciones: International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
Año: 2015
ISBN: 92-91274739
País(es): Iraq, Jordan
Cobertura geográfica: Cercano Oriente y África del Norte
Tipo: Documento técnico
Idioma utilizado para los contenidos: English
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