In late 2021, a range of experts from around the world were approached to provide expert input to the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)–the new strategic framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) that will guide interventions to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services for the next three decades.

In this opinion piece, appearing as a companion to other opinion pieces addressing selected aspects of the GBF, we discuss the science behind Target 10 with a focus on agricultural production. This opinion piece is based on analyses that were prepared in support of GBF negotiations provided to governments and stakeholders by the CBD (CBD/WG2020/3/INF/11, CBD/WG2020/4/INF/2/Rev.2 and CBD/POST2020/OM/2022/1/2) and follow-up work (see https://geobon.org/science-briefs/) in the lead-up to the CBD COP-15 held in Montreal in December 2022. This piece is further underpinned by research conducted by several global commissions including the EAT-Lancet Commission [1], the biosphere working group of the Earth Commission [2] and syntheses produced for COP26 [3] and the UN Food System Summit [4].