家庭农业知识平台

Mapping climate change in Iraq and Jordan

Climate change assessments are based on predictions, or - more accurately - projections of future conditions of temperature and precipitation in a given area. These projections are generated by very complex models, Global Circulation Models (or GCMs). There are three major hurdles in interpreting correctly the results from these models: (i) there are several GCMs that do not yield similar results for the same locations; (ii) their resolution is very coarse, hence they can provide unique projections only for very large areas, thus ignoring local specificity, and (iii) GCMs operate on assumptions of future greenhouse gas emissions (a.k.a. ‘scenarios’), therefore their outputs refer to divergent futures. The GIS studies, summarized in this Working Paper, offer an approach for dealing with the above challenges: they provide a downscaling method for making the GCM projections location-specific, incorporate different GCM models, and include different scenarios for the future.

:
:
:
:
:
:
发布者: International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)
:
:
:
作者: Eddy De Pauw
其他作家: Muna Saba, and Sabah H. Ali
组 织: International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)
其他组织: International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
年份: 2015
国际标准图书编号: 92-91274739
国家: Iraq, Jordan
地理范围: 近东及北非
类别: 技术文件
内容语言: English
:

分享本页内容