This paper investigates the ‘megatrends’ shaping African economic, political and social landscapes and asks which ones depend endogenously on processes that are within the realm of policy influence and which ones are indeed exogenous. Based on this analysis, it sketches four plausible scenarios for African food systems and discusses how policy choices will influence which of these scenarios is manifested in the next decades. The authors hope to raise society’s awareness of the potential to shape future outcomes and argue that the state can play a major role to engage the public in determining what a ‘good society’ looks like.