In order to make a prediction of growth of reservoir area in Africa over the next two decades, it is first necessary to examine on-going construction. This gives an estimate of dams which will be completed in the present decade. To predict reservoir growth in the final decade trends in population growth and energy demand up to the year 2000 was used, but while the pattern is already set for the first decade, by construction underway, or funds already committed the pattern for the second decade is not so clear. Not only will it depend on population growth and energy demand, but several other factors will play a modifying, if not deciding role.
First, there is the question of what proportion of the energy demand in Africa will be met by hydro development, and secondly, and the most crucial problem, is the rate at which hydro development can be financed.
At this stage it is necessary to establish the position of hydroelectric development as it relates to other types of development involving reservoirs in Africa. Irrigation and flood control are two of the most important of many other purposes for the creation of reservoirs. But examination of a register of dams constructed in Africa up to 1982 (Bernaczek, 1984), indicates that there were no major dams constructed solely for irrigation and flood control and only a few minor ones for these purposes. It has been estimated that the growth of irrigated areas in the developing market economies of Africa will be about 1.1 million hectares in the next 20 years. This is only a small fraction of world growth, and will be provided mostly from the multi-purpose hydro projects to be undertaken in Africa during the next 20 years. The number and size of the reservoir projects for irrigation is not large; therefore, they have been omitted from this study. Flood control reservoirs are non-existent at present.
