The World Bank has estimated the average cost (in 1977 US dollars per kilowatt) of different types of electrical power production in developing countries as follows:
| Geothermal | 1 564 |
| Nuclear | 1 436 |
| Hydro | 1 246 |
| Thermal | 863 |
Many of the countries in Africa have a potential geothermal capability1 but it is likely that it will not be utilized unless other sources are not available. It is therefore unlikely that there will be any real expansion in this field by the year 2000, with the possible exception of Kenya.
Nuclear power is beyond the reach of most developing countries; the only African countries which may consider it for the medium term are South Africa, where most available hydro is already developed, and possibly Egypt, where the hydro potential is limited.
1 Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda have geothermal resources
Thermal power is definitely a possibility in many African countries, but not in the short-term, except in the countries which are already producing oil, and especially ones which have a surplus of gas. Nigeria is one such country, but there are problems in making it available where it is needed. Therefore, it seems that for the immediate and mid-term, Africa will depend on hydro power to meet its main needs. This will involve relatively high capital costs, but most of the countries have no other viable alternatives. With the help and encouragement of the World Bank, African countries have been pursuing a course of hydro power development since 1973–74, when the price of oil escalated, and more intensely since 1979 when it doubled again. They have been developing new hydro resources and phasing out their old steam and diesel generating equipment. There is a lag, however, of almost a decade in bringing new hydro power on stream, and the first surge of resulting development is only beginning to be felt now, a decade later. At the same time, many of the countries are either proven or potential oil producers1. But oil exploration and development takes a long time and results are unlikely before 1990. Even then, the oil discovered is more likely to be exported to provide the hard currency necessary to repay long term debt, so change in the present situation before the turn of the century, is unlikely.
