An FAO-led pioneering approach that combines modelling with analyses provides an innovative array of policy mixes for decision-makers on agrifood systems in Indonesia and Uganda

What if you could foresee the way agrifood systems evolve overtime according to choices made and resources mobilized? What if those choices could be simulated in different scenarios, to predict the best feasible options for policy intervention? Thanks to an FAO initiative, a pool of international research institutions is conducting innovative modelling and analyses supporting Indonesia and Uganda to translate their national priorities for food systems transformation into concrete policies and actions.

“This way, both governments will be better informed to navigate trade-offs, identify optimal policy mixes and reach representative deals to shape their strategies for food security and nutrition,” says Anna Rappazzo, FAO’s Project Officer who coordinates the subprogramme Governance innovation for sustainable development of food systems funded by the FAO Flexible Voluntary Contribution (FVC).

The quantitative analysis is being conducted by the Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA). In Indonesia, the international research institutions work together with the Bogor Agricultural University (IPB).

The combination of the models MIRAGRODEP, GLOBIOM and CGPE provides unique evidence based on rigorous methodologies. The team of researchers elaborate their analysis on the concrete priorities of each country and provide insights about the agrifood systems’ performance, mapping synergies and potential trade-offs across identified interventions. The information package, continuously discussed and refined in collaboration with national lead institutions, also includes an examination of the interests, roles, and contributions of institutional and non-institutional stakeholders, allowing for identification of alliances and coordination needed to ensure political feasibility of their food transformation plans.

“The evidence will help us prioritize interventions, and better balance economic, environmental and social objectives,” highlights Anang Noegroho, Director of Food and Agriculture at the Ministry of Planning of Indonesia – which is leading the national food systems transformation efforts to meet the country’s targets to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Insights from Indonesia
The analysis in Indonesia has already produced preliminary results, building on three targets that represent key sustainability priorities established by the country: 1) Achieving healthy diets for all, shifting from a purely productions oriented to a more consumption focused approach; 2) Achieving more equitable and profitable agrifood supply, and; 3) Ensuring environmental sustainability, including climate change perspectives.

The baseline scenario called business as usual (BAU) shows the evolution of the agrifood systems without policy interventions. It points out that Indonesia is making steady progress across several policy objectives. Under BAU, the poverty rate in Indonesia continues to decrease, as does the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU). Increased productivity for Indonesia’s main crops (corn, palm oil and rice) and increased value added in agriculture and forestry are also projected under BAU (14 percent between 2020-30), as are lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While deforestation is projected to slow under BAU, a decrease in forest cover is still projected as land conversion continues for oil palm plantations and cropland.

The study has also modelled stylized scenarios representing interventions on (i) undernourishment, (ii) agricultural intensification, (iii) forest conservation and (iv) a carbon price, as well as several scenarios where such interventions are combined. This modelling shows:

A scenario targeting undernourishment reduces the PoU to 2.8 percent by 2030 (compared to 5.7 percent under BAU) and increases the value added for healthy staples and root crops, but it leads to an expansion of cropland and increased GHG emissions, as well as potentially higher food prices – which are borne by the government through its subsidization of consumers.
A scenario with an intervention on agricultural intensification leads to increased value added in commodity crops like coffee and soybeans and increases in forest cover and natural land but does little to address undernourishment (5.3 percent PoU in 2030) and is unlikely to promote healthier diets as increased production is largely in commodity crops and not nutrient-rich staples.
A forest conservation intervention is most effective in preserving forest cover, leading to an extra 1 million hectares of forest by 2030 compared to BAU, and is highly effective in reducing GHG emissions in the short to medium term (-13.2 percent compared to BAU in 2030) but it does not prevent the conversion of other natural land and has no impact on undernourishment.
A carbon price intervention is the most effective way to reduce GHG emissions over the longer term (-13.6 percent compared to BAU in 2045) and leads to reduced deforestation (although less than a forest conservation intervention), but it also results in a slight increase in undernourishment (5.9 percent in 2030, compared to 5.7 percent under BAU) by increasing the cost of agricultural production.
The preliminary results indicate that trade-offs from targeted policy interventions are hard to avoid, but combining policy interventions can address negative trade-offs associated with targeted interventions while capitalizing on synergies. In addition, the findings emphasize the importance of ensuring strong local/regional representation in policymaking processes while exploring targeted interventions across different areas to maximize impact over the territory.

Growing momentum in Uganda
In Uganda, the analysis will be brought in support to the newly created Food Systems Coordination Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister's Office and co-chaired by the National Planning Authority and the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries. Coordination includes representatives across institutional and non-institutional stakeholders, the United Nations, and development partners.

Similarly to Indonesia, key axes are based on Uganda’s top priorities reflected in policies and frameworks as follows: 1) Ensuring socioeconomic wellbeing of all Ugandans; 2) Enhancing productivity of agriculture and availability of food; and 3) Improving environmental sustainability. Work is underway, and results will help consolidate the food systems transformation plan in the country.

The FVC subprogramme has provided technical and financial assistance to the realization of national dialogues in Indonesia and Uganda as part of the preparations of the 2021 UN Food System Summit (UNFSS) and its follow-up processes. In this context, the initiative is supporting the two countries to present their experiences in the UN Food Systems Summit +2 Stocktaking Moment, which will be held in Rome in July 2023.

Learn more:
FVC Subprogramme Governance innovation for sustainable development of food systems
Article Focus on governance: the crucial premise to transform agrifood systems
Food Systems Profile - Uganda. Catalysing the sustainable and inclusive transformation of food systems
UN Food Systems Summit +2 Stocktaking Moment
Article Finally resuming post-pandemic field trips