BackgroundChanges in the geographical distribution, incidence and intensity of plant pests and animal diseases, alongside changes in agricultural and aquaculture production patterns, carry the potential of affecting world food security, both through enlarged direct losses to diseases and pests as well as through increased sanitary and phytosanitary barriers to trade and traffic.
Global warming is already changing the distribution or increasing the incidence and intensity of key animal diseases and plant pests, and the distribution of fish species. While it is difficult to attribute these alterations unequivocally to climate change, some recent examples of spectacular extension of pathogens or vectors of animal, human and plants diseases have been particularly demonstrative.
The unprecedented increase in the movement of people, animals and goods, multiplies the pathways for the dissemination of transboundary animal diseases and plant pests (including insects, pathogens, and plants as pests) and aquatic species. The opportunities for introduction of unfavourable foreign species are also high in the case of oceans where no physical boundaries exist. Once introduced, climatic changes combined with changes in crops, landscapes and human activities may create favourable ecological conditions for the persistence of transboundary diseases and pests. In marine ecosystems also, the general increase of temperature and increase of freshwater discharge caused by climate changes especially in higher latitudes create more favourable conditions for those introduced species to establish in the new environments. Global warming is already changing the distribution or increasing the incidence of key plant pests and animal diseases, as observed in the forest sector with the Mountain Pine Beetle, which was enabled by warming to double its reproductive rate and in the animal sector where bluetongue was able to cross the Mediterranean and sustainably maintain itself in Europe.
An understanding of the whole production agro-ecosystem is necessary to assess the impact of climate change on food security. Future shifts in the distribution of intensified cropping zones for all major food crops or in the distribution of populations of humans, livestock and wildlife are predicted in all climate change scenarios. This means that the equilibrium between hosts (animals, plants), pathogens, vectors, predators, parasitoids that regulates the populations will be perturbed. The impacts of these changes in terms of public health, food security, food quality, and economic exchanges are potentially huge. They will not be uniform, some populations and/or areas being more vulnerable. Better monitoring, preparedness, and rapid response will be needed.
FAO has a major role to play in preparing its members to mitigate the impacts of climate changes on transboundary pests and diseases. While the FAO Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) Programme for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases already widely integrates climatic information for forecasting, the predictions could be further enhanced and adapted to new scenarios related to climate change. With the climate-induced shifts in crop distribution, FAO will provide policy and technical guidance to decision makers in more Member Countries on monitoring populations including those of pathogens, vectors and pests. Key questionsWhile it is difficult to assess all the mechanisms causing the impact of climate change on the occurrence of pests and diseases, there is evidence that it will affect the patterns and processes of invasion and incidence and intensity. Therefore, this expert meeting will focus on the following lead questions: - Does the present knowledge in Invasion Ecology Science provide the adequate basis to assess the forcing of Climate Change on pests and diseases (animals, plants, forests, and aquatic species)?
- Can we predict how climate change will affect the emergence and spread of diseases and pests, and how can the effects of climate change on transboundary diseases and pests be separated from other effects (like spread through expanding transportation networks, drug and pesticide resistant pathogens)?
- What will be the impact of changes in animal and plant diseases on the food security of different population groups and can we identify more vulnerable situations where transboundary diseases and pests lead to significant destabilization of supplies and to decrease in production or access to food?
- What are necessary future research activities (with emphasis on interdisciplinary) that could better clarify and quantify possible connections between climate change, ecosystems and the transmission of disease agents, and their consequences for plant and animal pests and diseases?
- Will relevant governments agencies and relevant Intergovernmental Organizations need to adjust to be able to cope with the effects and consequences of climate change on transboundary pests
Expected outputs- Expert opinions and reference case studies, highlighting the mechanisms through which climate change will impact transboundary animal diseases, plant pests and aquatic species, and therefore paving the way for further specific assessments;
- Expert opinions on the relation between the effects of climate change on transboundary animal diseases, plant pests and aquatic species and food security;
- An assessment of transboundary animal diseases, plant pests and aquatic species posing higher risk, considering the predicted changes in climate and the identification of a number of those that may require priority for intergovernmental action;
- An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the relevant government and intergovernmental institutions and, if appropriate, the identification of priority action and its possible funding.
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