Reference Date: 04-September-2026

Paddy production forecast at above‑average level in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 Boro paddy crop, which is mainly irrigated and accounts for about 55 percent of annual output, concluded last June. Production is estimated at about 31.9 million tonnes, close to the record level of the previous year, primarily reflecting strong yields owing to growing adoption of improved varieties. Harvesting of the 2026 Aus paddy crop, which accounts for about 10 percent of annual output, concluded in July and production is estimated at 4.1 million tonnes. Flooding and landslides between May and July 2026 in the southeastern and northeastern parts of the country caused some crop losses, particularly in the districts of Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Moulvibazar and Habiganj. The 2026 Aman paddy crop, which accounts for about 35 percent of annual output, is currently at the vegetative stage of development and production is preliminary forecast at 25.9 million tonnes. Although floods in July also caused localized losses of newly planted crops and damaged seedbeds, most affected areas were subsequently replanted, while weather conditions remained generally favourable across most producing areas. Overall, the aggregate 2026/27 paddy production is forecast at 61.9 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the average.

The 2026 maize cropping season finalized in July and the aggregate production is estimated at 5.1 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average, reflecting large sowings driven by high prices at planting time and bumper yields supported by favourable weather conditions as well as the widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties.

Production of the 2026 wheat crop, harvested in April, is officially estimated at a bumper level of 1.2 million tonnes, owing to above‑average area planted and yields.

Cereal import requirements forecast at slightly above‑average level in 2026/27

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat, which accounts for about 80 percent of domestic cereal consumption needs, and minor quantities of rice and maize. In the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June), cereal import requirements are forecast at 9.1 million tonnes, slightly above average. Imports of wheat are projected at 6.8 million tonnes, about 5 percent above average, driven by strong domestic demand for both human consumption and feed use. Imports of maize are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, about 10 percent above average, amid steady demand by the feed industry, particularly the livestock and fisheries sectors. Imports of rice in calendar year 2026 are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, down from 1.9 million tonnes in 2025.

Prices of rice and wheat flour lower year‑on‑year in July 2026

Domestic prices of rice were generally stable since May 2025 and, as of July 2026, they were about 5 percent lower year‑on‑year, reflecting adequate market availability from the 2026 harvests. Prices of mostly imported wheat flour (locally referred to as “Atta”) generally increased since the beginning of 2026, in line with upward trends in international markets. As of July 2026, however, prices were slightly below their year‑earlier levels.

About 18.1 million people acutely food insecure between September and December 2026

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis about 18.1 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between September and December 2026, up from 15.3 million people estimated during the May‑August 2026 period. This includes about 787 000 people projected to face IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The deterioration in food security conditions is mainly due to constrained household purchasing power amid persistently high inflation, driven by elevated fuel and energy costs associated with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while floods further affected livelihoods in some areas. The food security conditions of approximately 1.2 million Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs) residing in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char remain of particular concern, with 35 percent of this population projected to face IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above, including 10 percent in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), amid anticipated shortfalls in funding for food assistance and limited livelihood opportunities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .