Reference Date: 09-January-2025

Paddy production forecast at above‑average level in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 Aman paddy crop, which accounts for 35 percent of the annual output, is expected to finalize at the end of December. Although losses of standing crops occurred in the eastern parts of the country due to heavy rains and floods last August, production is forecast at above‑average level, mostly due to anticipated high yields in non‑affected areas. Harvesting of the 2024 Boro paddy crop, accounting for 55 percent of the annual output, finalized in June and production is estimated at record 31.6 million tonnes, reflecting large plantings in response to high prices at sowing time and bumper yields owing to favourable weather conditions. Harvesting of the 2024 Aus paddy crop, accounting for 10 percent of the annual output, concluded in July and production is estimated at 4.2 million tonnes, 7 percent below the average, following the crop losses caused by severe flood events between May and July and the passage of Cyclone Remal in late July. The aggregate paddy production in 2024 is forecast at above‑average 60.2 million tonnes.

The 2024 maize cropping season finalized in July and production is estimated at record 5.2 million tonnes, mostly due to large sowings driven by robust domestic demand and elevated prices during the planting period. Favourable weather conditions and widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties supported above‑average yields.

The production of the 2024 wheat crop, harvested in April, is officially estimated at near‑average 1.2 million tonnes.

Below‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat, that cover 80 percent of country’s consumption needs, plus minor quantities of rice and maize. In 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at below‑average 8.3 million tonnes. Imports of rice in calendar year 2025 are expected to amount to 450 000 tonnes. Imports of wheat are projected at near average 6.1 million tonnes. Imports of maize are forecast at above average 2.1 million tonnes, driven by steady demand for feed by the livestock and fishing industries.

In the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years, cereal imports were well below the average level as the country’s import capacity was constrained by dwindling foreign currency reserves and significant depreciation of the national currency (taka) from May 2022 to November 2024. As the national currency remains weak and foreign currency reserves are low, the country is likely to face challenges to fully cover the import requirements also in 2024/25.

Worsening food security conditions between October and December 2024

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 23.6 million people were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) from October to December 2024, up from 16.5 million people estimated in the April‑October 2024 period. About 21.9 million people are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and about 1.6 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The deterioration of food security conditions is mostly attributed to negative effects of floods and Cyclone Remal, which affected about 19 million people and caused severe losses of crops, livestock, food stocks and agricultural infrastructure. In addition, despite the above‑average cereal harvests obtained in 2023 and 2024, which have improved food availability, concerns about access to food remain due to persistent high food inflation that diminishes the purchasing power of vulnerable households. The food inflation has stayed at elevated levels since August 2022 and, in October 2024, it was estimated at 12.7 percent, driven by high costs of production and transport, reduced cereal imports (especially the key staple wheat) and the significant depreciation of the taka, which made imports costlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .

Agmet EO Indicators by NASA Harvest and GEOGLAM Crop Monitor https://cropmonitortools.org/tools/agmet/ .