Reference Date: 25-April-2024

Below‑average cereal harvest expected in 2024

Harvesting of 2024 winter grans will start in June. Sowing of winter crops was delayed by about one month due to limited rainfall amounts and above-average temperatures that affected soil moisture.

Being largely rainfed, cereal yields are highly variable depending on rainfall amounts and distribution. In western areas of the country, rainfall was erratic and below average since the beginning of the season with negative consequences on crop growth. Heavy rains in November and December 2023 brought some recovery for crop development in northeastern and central areas (ASI map). As of the beginning of April, yields are expected at near-average levels in northeastern and central regions, while lower production is forecast in western areas of the country.

The continuing dry conditions hampering crop growth in 2023 persist in 2024. Total cereal production in 2024 is estimated at 3.5 million tonnes similar to 2023. Cereal output remains about 22 percent below the five-year average, mainly driven by a decline in the wheat harvest which represents about 70 percent of the total output. Barley crops have also been affected by dry weather conditions and the output is expected to be below the five-year average.

Cereal imports in 2023/24 forecast to slightly increase

The country relies heavily on imports of cereal grains with soft (common, milling) wheat being the most prominent to cover its consumption needs.

Cereal imports remain at elevated levels in 2023/24 as consequence of the below-average cereal domestic production which was affected by dry weather conditions. The 2023/24 cereal import requirements (July/June) are forecast at about 14 million tonnes, representing the highest volume of cereal imports compared to the previous five years. Wheat imports represent about 60 percent of total cereals imports and are forecast at 8 million tonnes. Imports of maize are foreseen to be at a near-average level of 4 million tonnes and barley slightly less than 1 million tonnes to be used as feed.

Since end‑2020, the country has allowed to import soft wheat with higher percentage of bug damage (from 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent and further increase to 1 percent in late 2021) with the aim to expand the number of potential countries supplying wheat. Since then, the Russian Federation has increased its wheat exports to the country, and it is currently one of the main suppliers of wheat.

Food price inflation ease in 2024, but it is still at high levels

Inflation stabilized in late 2023 but persisted at historical high levels. Since the beginning of 2024, inflation decelerated from 6.3 percent in January to 4.60 percent in February. The food inflation rate also eased in recent months, from 7.2 percent in January to 3.7 percent in February. Both general and food price inflation are expected to decrease in 2024 in line with declining global commodity prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .