Reference Date: 24-March-2025

Mixed weather conditions at the start of 2025 winter cereal season

Planting of the 2025 winter cereals was completed in January 2025. In September 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture announced the expansion of the cereal cropland, allocating over 2 million hectares for wheat and about 1 million hectares for barley, aiming to increase local production. Additionally, the government will provide subsidized seeds and fertilizers in order to support farmers’ access to inputs and ensure better yield prospects. Precipitation amounts between November and December 2024 were well below the average, decreasing soil moisture level. Although improved precipitation in January partially offset this deficit, particularly in key producing provinces, Constantine, Guelma, Chlef and Oum El Bouaghi, a subsequent dry spell in February worsened yield prospects and the output of the 2025 cereal crops, to be harvested by June, is preliminarily forecast at a below‑average level.

Cereal production in 2024 estimated close to average level

Cereal production in 2024 is estimated at an average level of 4.1 million tonnes, reflecting varied weather patterns throughout the growing season. From January to March 2024, precipitation amounts were above average but offset by dry conditions between April and June.

Slightly above‑average import requirements forecast in 2024/25

Cereal import requirements are forecast at about 14 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), around 4 percent above average. This is largely driven by high anticipated wheat imports of nearly 9 million tonnes, over 10 percent above average, while maize imports are forecast at 4 million tonnes, about 8 percent below the average, considering adequate ending stock levels from the previous year.

Food price inflation eased in 2024

Annual food inflation rate eased to 3 percent in 2024, down from 13 percent in 2023, driven by various fluctuations in food prices, particularly an increase in meat and potato prices offset by a decline of prices of fruits, vegetables and eggs.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .