Reference Date: 10-October-2024

Favourable prospects for 2024 main Meher season crops

Harvesting of the 2024 main Meher season crops, planted last June and July in key producing areas of western Oromiya, western Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz regions, has recently started and will conclude in December. The June to September Kiremt rainy season was characterized by average to above-average rainfall amounts, benefiting yields. As of late September, immediately before the start of harvesting operations, according to remote sensing data, vegetation conditions were good across all Meher cropping areas (ASI map for cropland) and cereal production prospects are generally favourable. However, localized shortfalls in cereal production are reported in some southwestern agropastoral areas due to floods and in parts of Amhara Region due to insecurity that disrupted agricultural operations.

The secondary Belg harvest, concluded last July in southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, eastern Oromiya, Central Ethiopia and Sidama regions, had a generally favourable performance on account of above-average February to May precipitation amounts. However, erratic rains in East and West Harerghe zones of Oromiya Region resulted in localized crop losses.

Above‑average rangeland conditions benefiting livestock

In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, a favourable performance of the March to May Gu/Genna rainy season significantly improved the availability of pasture and water, with a positive impact on livestock body conditions, conception rates, herd sizes and milk production. Vegetation conditions entered the July to September dry season at well above‑average levels (ASI map for grassland) and, despite some seasonal declines, as of mid-September, they were still favourable.

Maize prices lower year-on-year in surplus producing areas

Prices of locally produced maize followed mixed trends in recent months and, last August, they were 10 to 20 percent lower than their year-earlier levels in Bahirdar, Mekele and Shashemene markets, located in surplus producing areas. By contrast, in the capital, Addis Ababa and in Diredawa markets, both located in deficit areas, prices of maize were 10 and 20 percent, respectively, higher than one year earlier.

Difficult food security situation due to multiple shocks

According to the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan, about 15.8 million people are estimated to be in need of emergency food assistance during the lean period between July and September 2024. The difficult food security situation is mainly the result of the lingering impact of drought conditions which affected in July-August 2023 northern areas, including Afar, Amhara, Tigray and northern Somali regions, as well as floods and intercommunal conflict which caused large-scale displacement and livelihood losses across the country.

The food security situation has generally improved since last September as the newly harvested 2024 Meher crops increased domestic availability. However, southern and southeastern pastoral areas are likely to face an increase in levels and prevalence of food insecurity between October and December, as weather forecasts point to below-average precipitation amounts during the October to December Deyr/Hageya rainy season, with an ensuing negative impact on livestock body conditions and on the availability of livestock products.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .