Reference Date: 02-September-2026

Above‑average precipitation amounts forecast between October and December 2026

Planting operations of the 2026/27 wheat and barley crops are anticipated to take place between October and November 2026. Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of above‑average precipitation amounts across large parts of the country during the last quarter of the year, likely favouring planting activities as well as supporting satisfactory crop germination and establishment. The area planted to wheat and barley is forecast to be above the five‑year average, underpinned by continued government support measures, including guaranteed remunerative procurement prices and direct payments to producers for the purchase of agricultural inputs.

Paddy production forecast at below‑average level in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 paddy crop, the country’s main cereal, is underway and is expected to conclude in November 2026. The area planted is anticipated to decline slightly year‑on‑year, as the government continues to promote the cultivation of alternative crops in response to declining demand of rice for food consumption. Weather conditions during the cropping season were generally favourable and, according to remote sensing data, no signs of drought were observed as of mid‑August 2026, shortly before the harvest period (ASI map). Localized crop losses occurred in low‑lying areas of some central and eastern provinces due to flooding in July 2026 and in some southern provinces in August 2026, following well above‑average precipitation amounts. Harvesting of the 2026 maize crop is ongoing and production is forecast to be close to the average level. Harvesting of the 2025/26 wheat and barley crops was completed in June and production of both crops is estimated well above the average level, largely reflecting an expansion in the area planted, supported by government incentives.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 marketing year forecast slightly above average

Total cereal import requirements in the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at slightly above‑average 16.7 million tonnes. Imports of maize, which account for the largest share of total cereal imports, are projected at 11.6 million tonnes, slightly above the average level, driven by sustained demand from the domestic feed industry amid rising livestock numbers. Wheat imports are forecast at average 4.6 million tonnes. In calendar year 2026, imports of rice are forecast at 500 000 tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .