Reference Date: 27-January-2025

Widespread dry weather conditions adversely affect start of 2024/25 cropping season

Planting of the main season paddy crop normally takes place between November and January, but sowing activities for the 2025 crop have been delayed by several weeks in southern, central and eastern parts. The central and eastern areas are two key producing regions. The delay is attributed to persistent below‑average rainfall amounts since November 2024, with rainfall deficits particularly acute in eastern areas. Additionally, higher‑than‑average temperatures have exacerbated the impact of reduced rains on agricultural activities.

Late planting is likely to shorten the growth duration of paddy crops, increasing the likelihood of reduced yields in 2025. In upland areas, mid‑January is generally considered the end of the optimal sowing period, while in lowland areas, the optimal planting period already concluded in December 2024.

Weather forecasts for the January–March 2025 period indicate a heightened probability of continued below‑average rainfall amounts in eastern areas. In the rest of the country, rainfall amounts are likely to be close to seasonal averages. However, nationwide above‑average temperatures are predicted during this period. Heat stress, combined with low rainfall amounts, poses a further risk to paddy yields, in addition to the likely shorter growth duration.

Cyclones, typically forming between November and April, are an additional threat to standing food crops and overall agricultural production. Cyclone Chido brought heavy rains in early December 2024 which, despite causing some localized damage, helped lessen early-season soil moisture deficits, improving conditions for planting in northern, western and southwestern areas. Meanwhile, Cyclone Dikeledi traversed northern regions in mid‑January 2025 , bringing heavy rains and advesrely affecting an estimated 7 000 people.

Low import needs in 2024/25 on account of above‑average paddy output in 2024

An above‑average 2024 paddy harvest, supported by generally favorable weather conditions, has resulted in below‑average rice import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March). As of December 2024, reflecting these reduced needs, the monthly pace of rice imports was approximately one‑third lower than in the 2023/24 marketing year.

Increased domestic supply eases pressure on rice prices

An ample domestic paddy supply in 2024 has moderated price increases for rice at the retail level. The latest available data shows that the average national price increased by 5 percent year‑on‑year as of September 2024, compared to 12 percent in September 2023. Meanwhile, the headline inflation rate remained generally stable between 2023 and 2024. However, at 8 percent in October 2024, the annual inflation rate was slightly higher than the five‑year average of 7 percent.

Potential inflationary risks in the near term stem from two factors. First, the implementation of power rationing by the state‑owned water and electricity provider, which began in November 2024, may disrupt supply chains and hinder the production and transportation of essential goods, including food. Second, the ongoing dry weather conditions are negatively impacting production prospects for the 2025 paddy crop and the expected supply shortage could exert upward pressure on domestic prices.

Large‑scale humanitarian response supports improvement in acute food security

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, just under 2 million people are projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity between January and April 2025. This figure represents 18 percent of the analyzed population, a reduction compared to the 22 percent estimated during the same period in 2024.

The moderate improvement is underpinned by significant humanitarian and development interventions in the south and southeast, where food insecurity rates have been persistently high in previous years. However, the IPC projections for 2025 also cover northern regions, where cyclones in 2024 caused flooding and resulted in widespread damage and losses to the agricultural sector, worsening the local situation of acute food insecurity.

Looking ahead, if weather conditions do not improve from February 2025, a potential downturn in agricultural production in 2025 is increasingly likely to occur, which would exacerbate acute food insecurity conditions later in the year. Furthermore, the passage of cyclones has the potential to disrupt livelihoods and cause damage to standing crops, outcomes that could contribute to worsening food insecurity conditions.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .

Agmet EO Indicators by NASA Harvest and GEOGLAM Crop Monitor https://cropmonitortools.org/tools/agmet/ .