Reference Date: 15-October-2024

Below-average 2024 main paddy output forecast

Harvesting of the 2024 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual output, is expected to start in late October 2024, with production forecast at a slightly below-average level of 23.6 million tonnes. Crops in the main paddy producing central and southern parts of the country have been negatively affected by flooding from heavy rains and Typhoon Yagi in September. The 2024 secondary paddy crop will be planted from November, and it could help to compensate for losses incurred during the main crop season. However, some farmers continue to face economic challenges in accessing agricultural inputs, including fuel and agrochemicals, due to their high prices.

Harvesting of the 2024 main maize crop is expected to start at the end of October and finalize in January 2025 and production is forecast at a below-average level. The reduced output reflects a contraction in area planted for the second consecutive year, primarily due to restricted access to fields caused by the ongoing conflict in northern regions, where maize cultivation is concentrated. Some farmers also shifted maize land to more profitable crops, such as chili peppers and pulses. The 2024 second maize crop is currently being planted. Overall, maize output is forecast at a below-average level of 2.1 million tonnes.

Average cereal exports forecast in 2024/25

Cereal exports, mostly rice and maize, in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an average level of 3.5 million tonnes.

Prices of rice at near-record level in September 2024

Retail prices of Emata rice, a widely consumed rice, have been generally on the rise since early 2023 and, as of September 2024, they were at near-record highs and 30 percent above their year-earlier levels. The sustained increase reflects the high cost of agricultural inputs and transport, conflict-related market disruptions and, more recently, concerns over the impact of flooding on the 2024 main harvest.

Critical food security situation due to multiple shocks

According to the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, about 13.3 million people (24 percent of the total population) are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (equivalent to Integrated Food Security Phase Classification [IPC] Phase 3 [Crisis] and above), including 2.7 million people in conditions (equivalent to IPC Phase 4 [Emergency]) in 2024. The main drivers of food insecurity are high food prices, limited livelihood opportunities due, to economic challenges, and the intensification of the conflict, which began in early 2021 and intensified since late 2023, causing large displacements. Recent floods and the passage of Typhoon Yagi affected and estimated 2.3 million hectares of cropland and the livelihoods of at least 1 million people, and caused severe damage to agriculture, housing and infrastructure.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of 30 September 2024, the number of Internally displaced persons (IDPs) is estimated at a record 3.4 million and they rely almost entirely on humanitarian aid. Additionally, about 1 million people, mostly from the Rohingya minority, sought shelter in the Cox’s Bazar District in Bangladesh and in other neighbouring countries.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .