Reference Date: 14-August-2024

About 31.8 million people estimated to be acutely food insecure during the 2024 lean season

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, nearly 31.8 million people are estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period, including over 999 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This is well above the approximately 24.9 million people estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance during the same period in 2023. The severe deterioration of the food security situation is due to a multidimensional crisis driven by worsening conflict, the persistent macroeconomic crisis and high food prices.

Conflict continues to drive acute food insecurity in the country’s North-East, North-West and North-Central zones, with the first half of 2024 witnessing a significant increase in the number of violent events and fatalities compared to the same period in 2023. Insecurity has severely disrupted markets and livelihoods and has caused large population displacements. In June 2024, about 3.4 million people were estimated to be internally displaced. Humanitarian access constraints remain very high, in particular in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, where about 45 percent of the people estimated to be in CH Phase 4 is located and several localities remain inaccessible.

The persistent macroeconomic crisis has resulted in a high inflation rate that reached 34.2 percent in June 2024, the highest level in 28 years, with consequent negative impact on access to food for vulnerable households across the country.

Overall favourable production prospects for 2024 main season maize crop

In southern bimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the main season maize crop is ongoing and is expected to conclude in August. Overall production prospects are favourable, reflecting generally good weather conditions. However, in some areas, in particular in Adamawa State, precipitation amounts have been below average since the start of the season, hindering plantings and leading to crop wilting and stunting. According to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of end-July 2024, between 40 to 85 percent of cropland in these areas was affected by drought conditions (red, orange and yellow areas on the ASI map).

In northern unimodal rainfall areas, sowing finalized last July. Cumulative rainfall amounts were near average between April and July, supporting planting operations and the early development of crops. However, in localized areas, torrential rains triggered floods, which disrupted sowing activities. Compared to the previous year, a decline in the area planted has been reported in several conflict-affected areas in northern regions, primarily due to farmers’ limited access to land.

Across the country, high input prices and low household purchasing power are constraining agricultural activities, with a likely negative impact on yields.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Forum on Seasonal Forecasts of Agro-hydro-climatic Characteristics of the Rainy Season for Sudanian and Sahelian Zones of West Africa (PRESASS), average to above-average rainfall amounts are expected in northern areas in August and September, likely benefitting crops. However, the expected abundant rainfall amounts may result in flash floods and river overflows, with ensuing localized crop losses. By contrast, average to below-average precipitation amounts are expected in southern areas.

Below-average cereal production in 2023

The 2023 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 28.1 million tonnes, about 5 percent below the five-year average and about 8 percent below the previous year’s level. Dry spells, limited access to fields due to insecurity and high costs of agricultural inputs, which led to a decrease in planted area, resulted in a reduced cereal outturn.

Prices of cereals at exceptionally high levels

Wholesale prices of locally produced rice and sorghum rose by 30-75 percent between December 2023 and May 2024, while prices of maize and millet increased between 45 and 60 percent during the same period. Prices of local cereals were at record levels in most markets in May 2024, more than double their year-earlier values.

Wholesale prices of imported rice decreased in most markets in April and May 2024, after a period of sustained increases since July 2023. However, prices in May 2024 were still very high, about double the year-earlier levels, partially due to the elevated international prices of rice following the adoption of an export ban of non ‑ basmati white rice in India in July 2023.

The high domestic prices of cereals reflect the weakness of the national currency (Naira), high transport costs and conflict-related market disruptions. Furthermore, strong local demand, combined with the strategy to hold stocks by traders and farmers due to unfavourable production prospects given the poor rainfall in some areas at the start of the 2024 rainy season, contributed to the high prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .