Reference Date: 07-September-2026

Risk of famine in four counties in Upper Nile and Jonglei states

According to an update of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 7.8 million people (55 percent of the total population) were estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season between April and July 2026. The highest prevalence of severe acute food insecurity, estimated at about 65 percent of the population, was reported in Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile states. About 73 000 people were estimated to face IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity, including 24 000 people in Upper Nile State and 49 000 people in Jonglei State. The IPC analysis identified a risk of famine under plausible worst‑case conditions in Luakpiny/Nasir and Ulang counties in Upper Nile State and in Nyirol and Akobo counties in Jonglei State. This reflects the impact of heightened violence since late 2025, which has undermined livelihoods, disrupted food trade and market activities, and triggered large‑scale population displacement.

The dire food security situation is driven by a combination of protracted macroeconomic challenges, soaring fuel prices due to supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis, escalating violence and population displacement, particularly in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states, and the lingering impact of consecutive years of widespread flooding on livelihoods.

Concerns for 2026 cereal production due to dry weather conditions

In southern agricultural areas, harvesting of the 2026 first season maize and sorghum crops concluded in August. The April‑November rainy season has been characterized so far by below‑average rainfall amounts and by an erratic temporal distribution. Following an earlier‑than‑usual onset in early March and abundant precipitation amounts received during the month, frequent and prolonged dry spells during the first growing season seriously affected crop establishment and development, resulting in an estimated below‑average cereal output. Planting of the 2026 second season crops, for harvest in late 2026/early 2027, is expected to conclude in September.

In northern and central cropping areas, harvesting of short‑cycle sorghum and maize crops has recently started and is expected to conclude in October, while long‑cycle sorghum crops will be gathered from November 2026 to January 2027. In these areas, the May‑October rainy season has been characterized so far by below‑average rainfall amounts, adversely affecting vegetation conditions in several cropping areas.

Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of below‑average rainfall amounts in September, followed by a shift to above‑average rainfall amounts between October and December in southern areas. In central and northern areas, the anticipated rainfall deficits in September are expected to further constrain crop development and affect yields, heightening the risk of significant crop production shortfalls. By contrast, in southern areas, the forecast above‑average rains between October and December are expected to support the development of second season crops and likely boost yields.

Insecurity has intensified since late 2025 and has disrupted agricultural activities in some areas, likely leading to localized crop production shortfalls.

Flood‑related crop losses are expected to be limited, as flooding caused by river overflows was less extensive than in recent years, while below‑average precipitation amounts reduced the occurrence of rainfall‑induced floods.

Cereal prices at exceptionally high levels mainly due to macroeconomic challenges and high fuel prices

In the capital, Juba, prices of sorghum remained firm at record levels between March and June 2026. Prices of maize, after having increased by 20 percent over the same period, reaching new record highs, declined by 15 percent between June and August as the first‑season harvest gathered in southern cropping areas increased market supplies.

The exceptionally high levels of cereal prices reflect persisting macroeconomic challenges, resulting in high inflation rates and currency weakness, and elevated fuel prices due to supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis. In Juba, prices of diesel fuel more than doubled between February and August 2026, when they were more than twice their year‑earlier levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .