In May 2024, domestic rice prices followed mixed trends and were well above their levels from the previous year in most countries of the subregion. In Viet Nam, wholesale rice prices remained stable in May despite the peak of the 2024 main winter/spring harvest, reflecting a year-on-year reduction in output and increased exports in the first five months of 2024 compared with the same period last year. In India, the national average retail price of rice was almost unchanged month‑on‑month in May and above its year-earlier levels, as large ongoing government procurement purchases, needed for various welfare schemes, limited the decrease from the progressive arrival of the 2024 secondary crop in the market. In China (mainland), the wholesale national average price of Indica and Japonica rice varieties remained stable in May and were close to their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate market availabilities from the 2023 harvests and expectations of an above-average 2024 early double crop, to be harvested from June onwards. In Myanmar, wholesale prices of the widely consumed Emata rice variety changed little in May but remained significantly up year‑on‑year after increasing steadily between November 2023 and February 2024. In contrast, strong price increases were registered in Thailand, where wholesale rice prices increased by 7 percent month‑on-month in May, reflecting steady international demand amid the imminent completion of the 2024 secondary harvest. In Sri Lanka, retail rice prices showed some slight seasonal strengthening and were 10 percent higher year-on-year in May. In the Philippines, the national average retail price of rice softened in May due to improved availability from the 2023 secondary harvest, which was nonetheless reduced due to dry weather conditions, as well as from large imports in the first quarter of 2024.

Regarding wheat grain and wheat flour, prices declined in May 2024 in most countries of the subregion, reflecting the progressive arrival of the 2024 winter wheat crops into the markets. In China (mainland), wholesale wheat grain prices declined further in May and were below their levels from the previous year due to ample market availability from the 2023 harvests and favourable prospects for the 2024 harvest, which started in late May. In Pakistan, retail wheat flour prices declined significantly for the second consecutive month in May as the 2024 harvest, officially estimated at a record level, increased market supplies. Overall, prices were well below their high levels from a year earlier. In Sri Lanka, a net wheat importer, retail prices of wheat flour declined marginally in May and were about 10 percent below their levels from the previous year, reflecting trends in international markets and adequate market availability from imports. In Afghanistan, retail prices of wheat flour continued their declining trend in May, and were significantly lower year-on-year, in line with year-on-year weaker international wheat quotations, with additional downward pressure stemming from incoming supplies from the 2024 winter wheat harvest, which improved compared to last year’s reduced level. Weak demand, due to the limited purchasing power of households associated with reduced employment opportunities and limited availability of cash, contributed to the decline in prices. In India, the national average retail price of wheat grain was stable in May, as large government purchases offset the downward pressure from the 2024 harvest, which is officially estimated at a record level.