Export prices of milling wheat from the Russian Federation continued to increase in May 2024 due to unfavourable crop conditions for the 2024 harvests but were still 11 percent lower year-on-year, supported by two consecutive years of strong harvests. In Ukraine, the export prices of milling wheat (offer, f.o.b.) increased for the second consecutive month in May as active demand was met with seasonally lower supply volumes. In Kazakhstan, the export price of milling wheat remained stable for a fifth consecutive month in May due to the positive crop forecast for 2024 and generally low trading activity in 2024.

In domestic markets of the subregion’s net exporting countries, national average prices of wheat flour were generally stable in April and May 2024. In the Russian Federation, the national average retail price was stable month-on-month in May at close to year-earlier levels. In Ukraine, the national average wholesale price of wheat flour increased slightly for a second consecutive month in May and was close to the previous year’s levels. In Kazakhstan, the national average wholesale price for wheat flour decreased for a third consecutive month in April and was about 8 percent lower year-on-year owing to weak demand and strong competition from the Russian Federation.

Domestic wheat flour prices followed mixed trends in April and May 2024 across the net importing countries of the subregion. In Armenia, the national average retail price of wheat flour remained stable in April at about 11 percent below year-earlier values as large import volumes in 2023 continue to bolster domestic availabilities. In Belarus, the national average retail price of wheat flour remained stable in April, following a period of price increase between November 2023 and February 2024.  Prices were up by 5 percent year-on-year in April, reflecting an overall increase in transport and production costs. In the Republic of Moldova, the national average retail price of wheat increased slightly in April, but wheat flour prices were about 12 percent below the previous year’s level, due to improved supplies from higher domestic wheat production and an increase in wheat flour imports from Ukraine. Similarly, in Georgia, the national average retail price of wheat flour moderately increased in May and was down by 4 percent year-on-year, supported by higher imports in 2023. In Kyrgyzstan, the national average retail price of wheat flour declined slightly for the third consecutive month in May and remained almost unchanged compared to previous year’s level. In Tajikistan, the retail prices of wheat flour remained stable for a third consecutive month in April and were lower year-on-year.