An increase in seasonal supplies of maize grain has partially eased pressure on prices and instigated moderate month-on-month price declines in June 2024 in some countries. However, on a yearly basis, prices of this key food staple still remained at elevated levels, as Southern Africa grapples with the impact of a widespread and intense drought that resulted in well below-average harvests across the subregion.

In South Africa, wholesale prices of white maize grain firmed up in June 2024, remaining just below the record high reached in April. Underpinning this month’s increase and the overall elevated levels is the low 2024 white maize harvest, estimated to be 25 percent lower year‑on‑year, reflecting the effects of an El Niño-linked drought. Neighbouring countries have also experienced weather-reduced harvests leading to heightened export demand for South African white maize, which has further contributed to the high prices; between May and mid‑June 2024, the quantity of white maize exported from South Africa was almost double the level of the same period in 2023. Conversely, yellow maize prices fell slightly in June, widening the gap with prices of white maize, and were only marginally higher on a yearly basis. The diverging movements relative to white maize reflect the less impactful effects of the drought on yellow maize production (decreased by 12 percent year-on-year) and the fact that there are ample supplies of yellow maize on the global market, unlike white varieties. Similarly, wholesale wheat prices fell in June, driven by falling prices on the international market and a moderate strengthening of the national currency. In the net cereal importing countries of Botswana, Eswatini and Namibia, prices of maize meal (mostly made from white maize) firmed up in May, amid the climbing levels in South Africa. In Zambia, prices of maize grain dropped seasonally in June with harvest pressure, but were 73 percent higher year‑on-year and close to their record highs of March, primarily driven by a nearly 50 percent drop in domestic production compared to the five-year average. On top of the tight domestic supply situation, a weak currency is providing additional upward pressure. Authorities in Zimbabwe introduced a new currency at the end of April 2024, the Zimbabwean gold, with a key intention to help stabilize the exchange rate. Prices of food denominated in this currency fell marginally between May and June, mostly supported by lower vegetable prices as newly harvested crops augmented market supplies. Food prices in United States dollar terms also declined slightly month-on-month in June. In Malawi, following four consecutive months of declines, the national average price of maize grain increased by nearly 20 percent in June compared to May. On a yearly basis, prices are 41 percent higher, largely driven by the reduced harvest in 2024, estimated to be 18 percent lower than the five-year average. The annual inflation rate in Angola continued to rise in May and reached 30.16 percent, well above the rate in May 2023. The gradual removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 and 2024 is contributing to cost‑push inflationary pressure, whilst the impact of the drought on domestic agricultural production is foreseen to add further upward pressure.