International wheat prices from the Russian Federation increased in June 2024 for the third consecutive month, mainly due to unfavourable weather, mixture of frosts in some regions and dry conditions elsewhere which have impacted 2024 crop prospects. Similarly in Ukraine,¹ the export price for milling wheat was trending upward for the third consecutive month in June, reaching a year‑on‑year peak, due to contraction in yield forecasts compared to the previous year, caused by dry weather conditions in May and robust import demand from Northern Africa. Prices eased towards the end of June in anticipation of the main winter harvest. In Kazakhstan, the milling wheat export price remained stagnant for the fourth consecutive month in June, reflecting subdued market activities and lighter demand from Central Asia.

In the domestic markets of the subregion’s net exporting countries, national average prices of wheat flour showed mixed trends and were lower compared to the previous year’s levels. In the Russian Federation, the national average retail price of wheat flour has been stable since February 2024, reflecting adequate market supply. While in Ukraine, national average wholesale prices of wheat flour were at least 15 percent higher month-on-month in June, mirroring lower supply in the market as many processing enterprises have shut down for preventive maintenance ahead of the upcoming harvesting period. Additionally, challenges in sourcing high-quality wheat grain have placed further upward pressure on prices. In Kazakhstan, the national average wholesale price for wheat flour decreased moderately in May, sustaining a downward trend that began in January 2024. Prices were down 6 percent compared to the same period last year, on account of higher domestic wheat production prospects.

Wheat flour prices generally held steady in the domestic markets of the subregion’s net importing countries. In Armenia, the national average price for wheat flour was stable in May and about 11 percent below the previous year’s level, due to an adequate supply provided by the Russian Federation. Similarly, in Belarus, the national average retail price for wheat flour was unchanged in May for the second consecutive month and was around 4 percent higher compared to the same period in the previous year. In the Republic of Moldova, the national average retail price of wheat flour increased marginally in May and was 10 percent below the previous year’s level, owing to the year-on-year lower international cereal prices and the licensing measure for grains and oilseeds that was introduced in October 2023 to encourage domestic production and sustain prices. In Georgia, the price of domestic wheat flour decreased marginally in June compared to May and remained around 3 percent below last year’s level, reflecting adequate availability due to imports from the Russian Federation.