Prices of coarse grains showed mixed trends in countries of the Sahel and along the Gulf of Guinea in September and October 2024, and reached new record highs in several markets. In many countries of the subregion, prices of coarse grains were higher than a year earlier.

In Mali, wholesale prices of sorghum were stable or decreased in October following the recent start of the 2024 harvest, while prices of millet remained stable or registered increases. Prices of both sorghum and millet reached new record levels in several areas and remained well above their year-earlier values in most markets, reflecting market disruptions due to conflict and floods, as well as concerns over the performance of the 2024 cropping season and strong demand. In Burkina Faso, wholesale prices of both sorghum and millet remained stable or declined in October, as newly harvested crops improved supplies, and they were up to 43 and 57 percent, respectively, higher compared to the same period last year. The high prices were mostly driven by low supply due to low carryover stocks, reduced imports from neighbouring countries and delayed marketing of the 2024 cereal crops as a result of a late start to the harvest in several areas, as well as high transport costs and conflict‑related market disruptions. Additionally, strong export demand and higher‑than-normal institutional purchases were factors that contributed to the upward pressure on prices. In the Niger, wholesale prices of both millet and sorghum registered seasonal declines in October, but they remained above their year-earlier levels in most monitored markets. The high prices were underpinned by low market supply, in particular due to the lingering effects of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctions, including the continued closure of the border with Benin, that has affected cereal imports, and flood and conflict-related market disruptions. In Chad, retail prices of sorghum and maize followed mixed trends in September, when they were up to about 35 percent higher than a year earlier. Prices of millet registered month-on-month declines and were up to 39 percent above their year-earlier values. The high prices of coarse grains were mostly underpinned by low supply due to widespread flooding that hampered trade flows, high transport costs and reduced cereal imports. In Lac Region, insecurity continued to constrain trade flows and market operations, contributing to the low supply. In addition, strong local demand, especially in refugee-hosting eastern areas, supported the year‑on-year price increases. In Senegal, the national average retail price of maize declined in September, while the price of millet remained stable and the price of sorghum registered increases. Prices of coarse grains were below their year-earlier levels in September.

In Benin, retail prices of maize registered month-on-month decreases of up to 24 percent in September 2024, while prices of sorghum remained stable across the country. Prices of maize were below their year-earlier levels in September, while prices of sorghum were near their year‑earlier levels in most markets, which can be partially attributed to the indefinite ban on the exports of basic food commodities, including maize, rice, millet and sorghum, that was introduced by the government in May 2024. In Togo, retail prices of sorghum were stable or registered seasonal decreases in September, while prices of maize were stable in most markets but increased in a few others. Prices of sorghum were near or below their year-earlier values, while prices of maize were up to 30 percent higher on a yearly basis, mostly reflecting high production and transport costs. In Nigeria, retail prices of locally produced maize and millet followed mixed trends in September, while prices of sorghum registered increases across the country. Prices of coarse grains remained well above their year-earlier values. Retail prices of imported rice increased across the country and were about twice their year-earlier levels in September. The high cereal prices, which hit new record levels in several markets in September, are mainly driven by the continued devaluation of the naira, reduced domestic cereal production, forecast at a below-average level, and high transport costs.