Prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends month-on-month in October and November 2024 across the subregion. In the Sudan and South Sudan, prices continue to be at significantly elevated year-on-year levels, underpinned by conflicts and insecurity, tight supplies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including currency weakness. By contrast, adequate carryover stocks and imports supported year-on-year lower maize prices in Kenya, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania.

In the Sudan, retail prices of domestically produced sorghum and millet will likely remain at significantly elevated levels in the near term. Prices will continue to be underpinned by the impact of the ongoing conflict, which has reduced domestic availability considerably, inflated production costs through higher input prices and disrupted food marketing activities, against a backdrop of already elevated prices due to macroeconomic challenges. As of October 2024, prices of sorghum and millet were on average six times higher than their respective pre-conflict levels in March 2023. In South Sudan, retail prices of maize and sorghum slightly eased in October from the record levels reached in September in the capital, Juba, as the exchange rate moderately appreciated on the parallel market. In Juba, prices of sorghum and maize in October were more than twice their already high year-earlier values due to tight supplies, reduced oil exports worsening the existing macroeconomic difficulties and flood-related trade disruptions. In Somalia, retail prices of maize declined for the second consecutive month in several markets in October as the off-season harvest, gathered in September in riverine areas of Shabelle Valley, increased market supplies. By contrast, prices of sorghum remained mostly stable. Year-on-year price changes followed mixed trends in October, driven by local supply/demand dynamics. In Ethiopia, where the main Meher harvest began in October under generally favourable conditions, maize prices are expected to face downward pressure in the near term with the arrival of the newly harvested crops, particularly in surplus producing areas, where maize prices were 10 to 20 percent lower than their year-earlier levels as of September 2024. For markets located in deficit areas, the downward seasonal pressure on prices might be offset by the elevated fuel prices and transport costs. According to the most recent REACH Joint Market Monitoring Initiative report, prices of most cereals were stable or declining month-on-month in October. In Rwanda, retail prices of maize continued to increase in November but at faster rates than in previous months, rising by up to about 30 percent month-on-month, as seasonal trends were compounded by concerns for a reduced 2025A season harvest, to be gathered in December 2024 and January 2025, due to erratic rainfall which affected vegetation conditions, especially in eastern areas. Despite the recent substantial increases, prices in November remained around their year-earlier levels due to adequate carryover stocks. In Burundi, prices of maize remained mostly stable in November around their year-earlier levels, due to adequate domestic availability. In Kenya, wholesale prices of maize followed mixed trends month-on‑month in November and were up to 35 percent lower year‑on‑year due to adequate domestic availability and sustained maize imports from Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. In Uganda, the national average retail price of maize was stable in October and about 25 percent lower year-on-year, due to adequate carryover stocks. In the United Republic of Tanzania, the national average wholesale price of maize began to increase seasonally in October, rising by about 5 percent month‑on-month. Prices in October remained at low levels, about 20 percent lower year-on-year, due to adequate domestic availability.