Prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends month-on-month across the subregion in December 2024 and January 2025. In the Sudan and South Sudan, prices continue to be at significantly elevated year-on-year levels, underpinned by conflicts and insecurity, tight supplies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including currency weakness. By contrast, adequate carryover stocks and imports supported year-on-year lower maize prices in Kenya, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania.

In the Sudan, the national average retail prices of domestically produced sorghum and millet declined for the second consecutive month in December 2024, decreasing by 3 and 6 percent, respectively, as the 2024 harvest increased market availability. Despite the recent declines, as of December 2024, prices of sorghum and millet were about five times their pre-conflict levels in March 2023, underpinned by the impact of the ongoing conflict, which resulted in a sharply reduced domestic availability, high input prices inflating production costs and trade disruptions, against a backdrop of already elevated prices due to macroeconomic challenges. In South Sudan, data from the World Food Programme (WFP) showed retail prices of maize unseasonally increased by 16 percent, in the capital, Juba, in December 2024, while prices of sorghum remained firm due to the continuous depreciation of the exchange rate, despite an improved market availability following the 2024 harvest. Prices of maize, in December 2024, were on average more than twice their already high year-earlier values and at near-record levels, mainly due to reduced oil exports worsening the existing macroeconomic difficulties and flood-related trade disruptions. In Somalia, retail prices of maize and sorghum followed mixed trends in December 2024. Year‑on‑year price changes of maize also followed mixed trends, driven by local supply-demand dynamics, while prices of sorghum were up to 34 percent lower on a yearly basis. In Burundi, retail prices of maize continued to increase month-on-month, and by up to 19 percent, in December 2024, when they were up to 43 percent higher on a yearly basis. In Uganda, the national average retail price of maize levelled off in December 2024 with the start of the second season harvest in bimodal rainfall areas. December 2024 prices were 3 percent lower year-on-year due to adequate carryover stocks. In the United Republic of Tanzania, the national average wholesale price of maize increased by 2 percent month-on-month in December 2024, continuing the upward trend which began in June, mainly due to sustained export demand from Southern African countries, where the 2024 cereal output was sharply reduced by drought. However, despite recent increases, prices were generally lower on a yearly basis due to ample domestic availability. In Kenya, wholesale prices of maize were mostly stable in January 2025 and were up to 17 percent lower year-on-year due to adequate domestic availability and sustained imports from Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. In Rwanda, retail prices of maize levelled off or declined by 2 to 4 percent in January 2025 as newly harvested 2025A crops increased market supplies. Prices were up to 37 percent higher than 12 months earlier.