Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

The objective of this component is to produce information on the impacts of climate change on agriculture for component 2 (household-level vulnerability to food insecurity).

Component 1 uses three modules (Climate, Crops, and Hydro) of Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC). 

MOSAICC is an integrated package of models for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including variations in crop yields and their effects on national economies.

In each country, all required data (agro-meteorological and other) is collected and processed into the format suitable for use in MOSAICC. Experts in the recipient countries can then produce projections of crop yields and water resources under a set of climate change scenarios.

The Climate component (a module of MOSAICC) facilitates the preparation of statistically downscaled climate data using an adapted version of a portal developed by the EU ENSEMBLES project.

The Hydrology component (a module of MOSAICC ) estimates water resources under future climate conditions and uses STREAM, a grid-based precipitation-runoff model, to simulate the discharge rate in large catchment areas.

The Crops component (a module of MOSAICC) simulates crop yields under future climate change and technological progress scenarios. It uses WABAL (a crop specific water balance model), the industrial version of FAO's AgroMetShell.

The Economy and the Forest component are not applied by AMICAF. All impact assessment components are conducted in a coherent manner and produce useful information for the assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity and adaptation actions for the next stages of the project. Further information on MOSAICC is available via their website: www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc/