Project overview:

The Aral Sea basin is shared among six nations: Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Much of Central Asia is located in arid climatic conditions and characterized by low rainfall, extremely low humidity, high evaporation rates and high solar radiation. Nearly all crop production uses irrigation with water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. Most river runoff is generated in the mountainous upstream parts of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The ice caps and glaciers in the mountains are natural reservoirs that provide 10–30 percent of total runoff and provide a stable base flow. 

A notable feature of the basin is the Aral Sea; once the world’s fourth largest lake it has diminished in size due to water extraction for irrigation, and as of 2009 covered only 26 000 ha. The environmental, economic and health consequences of this change are serious.

Given the importance of water resources to national economies in Central Asia, effective regulation of the shared Aral basin waters is one of the most significant areas of intergovernmental cooperation in the region. Discussions about alternative water management regimes are ongoing but the parties concerned hold very different views about the principles that govern water allocation.

With the aim of strengthening cooperation on joint management of transboundary water resources, the project set out to develop a comprehensive scenario for the Aral Sea basin. The main objective was to strengthen regional cooperation through improved decision-making and enhanced mutual understanding. The expected outcomes included new insights and the development of shared options through a shared learning process, as well as better understanding of the dynamics of the situation and the inter-sectoral relationships.

Key result of the project:

• A total of 43 individuals from Central Asia and Afghanistan participated in the respective scenario workshops.
• The first phase of a scenario exercise on the future of the agriculture-water-energy nexus in Central Asia has been successfully completed with the participation of government officials from all Aral Sea Basin States. The exercise increased the participants’ understanding of the complexity of Aral Sea basin issues. Key driving forces and uncertainties were identified and analysed, and the underlying causal structure was mapped and captured.
• The scenario methodology – which is systematic, emergent and participatory – proved effective in conducting a rapid but comprehensive analysis of the development issues related to the water-agriculture-energy nexus in the Aral Sea basin. By securing the participation of representatives from ministries for foreign affairs in the Central Asian States, the project achieved a balance between members with sectoral expertise and policy-making responsibilities. 
• Four scenarios were prepared and agreed upon by all riparian states. These constitute a joint tool for analysing complex policy questions related to the water, agriculture and energy sectors in the region in a systematic and multi-stakeholder setting.
• A key result of the exercise was the convergence of views among the riparian states. It ultimately resulted in the set of adopted scenarios, representing an increased level of common ground.
• Experts from Central Asia and Afghanistan have acquired practical experience in scenario building and the “scenario thinking” process.
• The series of five regional workshops contributed to strengthening the cross-sectoral and multi-country network of relationships among stakeholders. This led to shared understanding of the dynamics of the situation and inter-sectoral relationships.

In the framework of the United Nations International Year of Water Cooperation, a video ‘Searching for water peace’ was made available on YouTube to communicate the project results.