Herring stocks may decline, while mackerel seems to be in good shape.

After a few relatively rich years for the herring industry in the North Atlantic, stocks are now expected to decline. On the other hand, mackerel stocks are in good shape, and increased landings are expected, although there is concern about possible overfishing. The market has been quiet for a few months, and no major changes are expected in the short term. Prices are expected to be quite stable.  

Mackerel

The EU pelagic industry is concerned about the future sustainability of the mackerel fisheries in the North Sea. In a meeting in London in October last year, several participating countries (the Faroes, Norway, Iceland and the EU) expressed their concern. ICES had recommended increases in quotas for 2014, but this was not agreed on by all countries. As usual, there was also disagreement on the allocation of quotas to individual countries. Negotiations continued in London this January, and surprisingly, negotiators seemed hopeful that agreement may soon be reached. 

The ongoing dispute involving Iceland, the Faroe Islands, the EU and Norway is by no means over. The Faroes began dispute settlement proceedings against the EU under the WTO in order to challenge EU’s trade sanctions against Faroese herring and mackerel. The sanctions, which came into effect at the end of August last year, ban all imports of herring and mackerel from the Faroes into the EU. The Faroes claim that these sanctions are in contravention of basic provisions of the WTO agreement. As for the Northeast Atlantic Fisheries Commission parties — Norway, the EU, Iceland and the Faroes — are still unable to reach an agreement on quotas for mackerel and herring fishing, Norway has set a preliminary quota of 150 000 tonnes of mackerel for its vessels in 2014.

Undercurrent News reports that Norway has also decided to allow fishing of 5 000 tonnes of mackerel in the northern part of the country during the summer period, as a result of the stock’s increasingly wide distribution. The move will boost fishing vessels and onshore plants. 

Scientists have recommended a cutback in South Pacific jack mackerel catches. This would affect fishing within national waters in Peru, Ecuador and Chile. The scientists recommend that catches should not exceed 440 000 tonnes in 2014, and that catches should be maintained at this level for the next three years. 

Namibia, which is one of the largest fishing nations in Africa, has a low consumption of fresh fish. . Over the years, the government has launched several campaigns to boost fish consumption, and finally, in the last two years there has been a marked increase in consumption, which increased from 1 570 tonnes in 2011 to 3 826 tonnes in 2012. One of the reasons for the success is thought to be the introduction of new and innovative products on the Namibian market. One such product is canned horse mackerel in chili or tomato sauce. Previously, canned anchovies had been a well-established product in the market. 

International trade

Norwegian exports of frozen mackerel declined by 16% during the first nine months of 2013, to 97 000 tonnes. All the top four markets (China, Russia, Japan and Turkey) showed a decline. On the other hand, shipments to Ukraine, Poland and South Korea, went up. 

Imports into Germany were flat in the third quarter of 2013 at 19 200 tonnes. The main suppliers were the UK and Ireland, which both saw slight increases in shipments. 

Mackerel prices were relatively stable during the last quarter of 2013. Prices for large sizes (>600 g) have been on an upward trend since the end of 2012, although there have been several ups and downs. However, now prices seem to have leveled off. For smaller sizes (

Herring

The winter herring fishery in Norway started well in January, with good catches and generally large sizes. In the first week of January, a total of 8 200 tonnes were landed. Fishermen reported that there was a significant amount of herring in the sea before Christmas. 

Norwegian export statistics for 2013 were presented in early January, and showed that Norwegian exports of small pelagics had declined for the year. Exports of herring amounted to NOK 3.1 billion (USD 505 million). This represented a 26% reduction compared to 2012. 

The largest market for Norwegian herring was Russia, which accounted for over 25% of total Norwegian herring exports. Exports to Russia actually fell by almost 50% in 2013, from NOK 250 million in 2012 to NOK 128 million in 2013. Norwegian herring exporters are losing their market share in East European and Asian markets. 

Norwegian exports of frozen herring declined significantly in the first three quarters of 2013, from 142 300 tonnes in 2012 to 114 400 tonnes in 2013 (-20%). Most of this decline was due to reduced shipments to Ukraine and Russia. Shipments to Nigeria went down by 50%. Despite these trends, exports to the Netherlands went up by 37.5% during the period. 

Dutch herring exporters fared much better. During the first nine months of 2013, Dutch exports of frozen herring went up by over 56%, to 86 100 tonnes. The largest market for Dutch herring was Nigeria, which accounted for a massive 50% of total Dutch exports, followed by Egypt (25%). Both of these countries showed very strong growth, while other markets were more stable. 

Worldwide imports of frozen herring fillets into Germany dropped by 36% during the first nine months of 2013. Norway was the largest supplier, but experienced a 44% drop in shipments. The UK fared even worse, with their shipments of frozen herring fillets to Germany declining by 68%.

On the other side of the globe, the Japanese herring market showed strength as imports grew by 29% during the first three quarters of 2013. A total of 31 000 tonnes were imported during this period, and the largest supplier was the USA, supplying 21 800 tonnes (70% of the total).

Herring prices were relatively stable over the past three to four months. For whole frozen herring there has been a very slight downward trend, while for frozen fillets, the downward trend is more pronounced. However, since September last year, prices for fillets have also been relatively stable. The outlook now is that these prices will remain stable until about June, when a peak for whole frozen herring is usually experienced. 

Capelin

The capelin fisheries in Iceland started in early January, and there have been reports of catches up to 1 200 tonnes. However, bad weather has hampered fishing activities at times. The Icelandic vessels are using trawl, whereas the Norwegians are not allowed this gear type and will have to wait until late January/early February to start fishing for capelin with nets only.

Canned sardines

In Peru, anchovy fishing amounts to about 6 million tonnes a year. However, it is now said that as much as one million tonnes is illegally caught. 

The Chilean ban on fishing sardines in certain areas (between the regions of O’Higgins and Los Lagos) was extended towards the end of last year. The ban will now remain in effect until March 2014. This measure was deemed necessary to protect the spawning stock in this region. The Chilean company Corpesca SA commissioned a scientific report on the status of the anchovy stocks in Northern Chile last year, and in January the report was published. The findings support the decision of the company to suspend its anchovy fishing in the region. However, a follow-up study is being carried out at the end of January, and this will be used to decide whether or not to reopen the fishery. 

Chile is in for a tough year, as several species have faced quota cuts. In the south of the country, the anchovy quota was cut by almost 65% compared with the 2013 season.  The sardine quota was also cut drastically, by 38% to 373 000 tonnes. 

In the USA, the sudden and rather drastic fall in landings of sardines on the west coast has caused a lot of concern about the state of the stocks. The sardine population is estimated to have been reduced by over 70% since 2006, and this has led to dramatic reductions in harvest limits. It is not clear whether this drop in the sardine population should be blamed on overfishing, climate changes or perhaps both. 

Namibia announced in January that it has put the pilchard quota to zero for 2014. Pelagic operators will now concentrate on sardinella, anchovy and inshore horse mackerel, all classified as industrial fish species. Namibia’s government has long pursued a cautionary policy in the interest of conservation and sustainability, and apparently the pelagic sector is in line with this. 

The canned sardine market is rather calm at the moment. Imports into Germany were slightly down (-11%) during the first three quarters. Morocco is the number one supplier, as it has been for years. In France, imports grew during the period, from 11 000 tonnes in 2012 to 13 200 tonnes in 2013 (+20%). Again, Morocco is the main supplier, and Morocco seems to have strengthened its position on this market over the past year. The UK canned sardine market is stagnant, and imports fell by 10% during the first nine months of 2013, to 9 200 tonnes. Morocco is the main supplier, but its position is not as dominant as in some other European markets. 

The US market for canned sardines is interesting in the sense that imports are rather high, though the leading suppliers are different from most European markets with suppliers including Poland, Thailand, and Morocco, though Canada and Ecuador are also important. Imports from January through September 2013 fell by 5.5% compared to the same period in 2012. 

Outlook

The supply situation for mackerel remains optimistic, while there is concern that supplies of herring may decline somewhat in the coming year. For other species, such as horse mackerel and sardines, supplies will be tighter, as Namibia has introduced a zero quota on small pelagics in inshore waters, and South American countries have also reduced quotas. There is good demand in most markets, and particularly Japan seems to be in the market for herring; imports have increased substantially, and are expected to remain high.

Prices have been rather stagnants over the past three or four months, and this is expected to continue. If any changes occur, they would include a slight increase in herring prices and a slight decline in mackerel prices. Prices for horse mackerel are expected to rise moderately.