Compared to November 2022, Madagascar’s Grand Sud region has seen a significant improvement in food security, surpassing predictions due to emergency measures since late 2022. However, vulnerability persists, with over 1 million people facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3, Crisis and IPC Phase 4, Emergency), despite favourable rainfall leading to adequate harvests. Postcyclone recovery in Grand Sud Est has been slow due to high food prices and structural challenges compounded by drought, cyclone damage, logistical hurdles, and water-related diseases. In the current period, from July to September 2023, around 16 percent (1.08 million) of the analysed population in 22 districts are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, with 51,000 in Emergency, IPC Phase 4.

The hardest-hit districts are Ambovombe Androy, Amboasary Atsimo, and Betioky Atsimo in the Grand Sud, and Befotaka, Nosy Varika, and Ikongo in the Grand Sud Est. In the first projected period, from October to December 2023, only Ampanihy district is expected to transition from Stressed, IPC Phase 2 to IPC Phase 3, Crisis, adding to the existing six districts in the same phase. About 1.32 million people (20 percent of the analysed population), are projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above), including 79,000 in Emergency, IPC Phase 4. The second projected period, from January to April 2024, projects significant deterioration, with about 1.1 million people in Grand Sud and 651,000 in Grand Sud Est needing urgent assistance due to cyclones, floods, and erratic rainfall. Overall, 1.72 million people (26 percent of the analysed population) will require immediate assistance.

DRIVERS OF ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY

• Climate shocks: Natural disasters, including cyclones and floods, have disrupted the crop calendar, affecting agricultural production and harvests.
• High food prices: The war in Ukraine and climate-related crop losses have led to increased food prices and inflation.
• Drought: Below-normal rainfall could lead to an extension of the lean season at the onset of 2024, especially in certain areas of the Grand Sud that are most prone to drought.

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