In September 2024, all three FAO price indices^* tracking the developments of the components of the oilcrops complex appreciated. The oilseed and oilmeal indices rebounded by, respectively, 3.6 and 1.5 points (3.5 and 1.5 percent) month-on-month, yet remained below their year-earlier levels. Meanwhile, the index for vegetable oils continued its upward trend since June 2024, up 6.2 points (4.6 percent) from August and reaching its highest level since early 2023.

The recovery of the oilseed index was driven by higher prices of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower seed. After declining for three consecutive months, international soybean quotations rebounded in September. On the supply side, excessive dryness and heat in Mato Grosso, the leading soybean producing state in Brazil where sowing activities just started, resulted in delays in planting and cast some doubts on its crop size; in the United States of America, where harvesting is ongoing, suboptimal weather conditions in parts of growing regions gave rise to some concerns over their yield potentials. From the demand perspective, soybean prices were also supported by rising global import purchases, particularly from China, as evidenced by weekly sales reports from the USDA. Nevertheless, world soybean prices remained below their corresponding values of a year ago, largely influenced by prospects of record global production in the 2024/25 season. As for rapeseed, international prices fluctuated in recent months but trended higher in general, underpinned by a further lower global production outlook, amid deteriorating prospects in Canada and the European Union. Noticeably, the announcement by China to initiate an anti-dumping investigation of rapeseed imports from Canada weighed on the market sentiment and contained additional rise in global quotations. Likewise, lower-than-expected sunflower seed output in the Black Sea region, as well as planting delays in Argentina following unfavourable dry conditions, underpinned a 4-percent increase in world sunflower seed prices.

As for oilmeals, the slight increase in the price index mainly reflected higher soy, rapeseed and sunflower meal values. While the prices for these derived products were influenced by the spill-over effect from respective oilseed markets, in the case of the rapeseed and sunflower meals, the price appreciation was also underpinned by reduced supplies in the European Union in recent months, following sharply higher duties for imports from Belarus and the Russian Federation since the beginning of July 2024.

With regards to vegetable oils, the continued rise of the price index was driven by higher quotations across palm, rapeseed, soy, and sunflower oils. International palm oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, underpinned mainly by concerns over lower-than-expected production that coincided with anticipated seasonal output declines in major Southeast Asian producing countries. This is despite sharply higher import duties imposed by India, the world’s leading vegetable oil importer, in a bid to support its domestic prices ahead of the harvesting season. Meanwhile, world soyoil quotations rebounded, due primarily to lower-than-expected crushings in the United States of America. As for sunflower and rapeseed oils, the marginal price recoveries in September were supported by a tightening supply outlook, following reduced outputs of respective oilseeds in the 2024/25 season.

* The monthly Monthly Price Update is an information product provided by the oilseeds desk of the Markets and Trade Division of FAO. It reviews the development of international prices for oilseeds, oils and meals as reflected by FAO’s price indices. Previous issues can be downloaded from the FAO website at the following webpage: https://www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/publications/en/?querystring=oilseeds

Please note that the views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.

Explanatory notes:

FAO's price indices are calculated using the Laspeyres formula; the weights used are derived from export values of each commodity for the 2014–16 period. The indices are based on the following international spot prices for nearest forward shipment (provided by Oil World):

• Components of the oilseeds price index: soybeans, US, cif Rotterdam; Copra Phil./Indo., cif NW Eur. port; rapeseed, Europe, 00, cif Hamburg; linseed, Canada, No.1, cif NW Eur. port; sunflower seed, fob Black Sea (please note that sunflower seed has been added to the index only in January 1976 and, until December 2012, referred to EU, cif Rotterdam).
  
• Components of the vegetable oils price index: soybean oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.
• Components of the meals/cakes price index: soy meal, 44/45%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; sun pell., 37/38%, Arg., cif Rotterdam; rape meal, 34%, fob ex-mill Hamburg; copra exp. pell., Phil., domestic; palmkernel exp., 21/23%, cif Rotterdam.