Food Outlook - April 2004

Year of publication2004

AuthorFAO

PublisherFAO

AbstractWorld cereal production is forecast to increase in 2004 to 2 131 million tonnes, which would be some 2 percent up from last year and 3 percent above the average of the past five years. The bulk of the increase is expected in wheat, although rice output is also seen to rise significantly. By contrast, production of coarse grains is forecast to decrease marginally. Global cereal utilization is anticipated to rise further in 2003/04 to 1 971 million tonnes, up 1 percent from the previous year but still slightly below the 10-year trend. Global cereal stocks will fall sharply by the end of seasons in 2004. Despite an upward adjustment since the previous report in November, aggregate closing inventories are still forecast to be down by 18 percent from their opening levels. International cereal prices have strengthened since the previous report in November, reflecting tight market conditions. Food aid costs per unit are expected to increase due to generally tighter world cereal supplies, strong international prices and higher freight rates for 2003/2004. The world cereal import bill in 2003/04 is expected to rise by 2 percent from the previous year to about US$38 billion. Although a smaller volume of trade is forecast, this will be offset by higher international prices and a steep increase in ocean freight rates.

 

Product typeBook (stand-alone)

SeriesFood Outlook

Areas of workGlobal Commodity Markets

KeywordsFood security; food chains; food production; food shortages; food stocks; food supply; markets; commodity markets; production statistics; trade statistics; monitoring; resource evaluation