There is broad agreement that interventions to support exports of agricultural commodities have the potential to distort competition on world commodity markets. In particular, the use of export subsidies can displace not only third-country exporters but also domestic producers in importing countries, with particularly detrimental effects to the development prospects of developing countries. In principle, it is also possible that other government interventions, e.g. through the use of export credits,...

Prospects for the 2005 global cereal crop remain favourable. Latest production forecasts indicate a decline from the record output of 2004 but not as large as anticipated earlier. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in the 2005/06 marketing season points to a slight decrease from the revised 2004/05 level, mainly due to lower wheat import demand. Global cereal utilization is expected to increase somewhat in 2005/06, which coupled...

Following its enlargement to include ten Central and Eastern European countries in May 2004, the European Union (EU) has now become the largest banana market in the world. It is forecast to import some 3.8 million tonnes of bananas in 2005, which would account for almost a third of world banana imports. As bananas enter freely into United States territory, and Japanese banana imports originate mainly in Asia, the rapidly...

The 26 December 2004 earthquake and ensuing tidal waves was the world’s strongest natural event, in terms of energy, since the Krakatoa volcano eruption of 1883. The estimated number of people either dead or missing in northern Sumatra’s mainland and northwest islands is 250 000, with over 500 000 internally displaced, many of whom are in refugee or Temporary Lodging camps (TLCs).

The current round of WTO negotiations on agriculture initiated in Doha in 2001 produced a range of suggestions as to the appropriate approach for further cuts in, and disciplines on, the use of agricultural tariffs. Subsequent analyses have provided crucial information for negotiators and policy analysts on the relative implications of these approaches on the tariff profiles of their individual countries as well as on those of their main trading...

Another good world cereal crop is forecast in 2005, although lower than the exceptional harvest in 2004. Dry weather in several Asian countries since late last year has negatively impacted the 2004 secondary paddy crop season, which is nearing its conclusion. Nevertheless, the 2004 aggregate rice production is still estimated to be the second highest on record. World cereal stocks at the end of crop seasons ending in 2005 are...

Subsidies maintain cotton production at otherwise unprofitable levels in industrialized countries Excess supply induced by domestic subsidies has a depressing effect on the world market price Subsidy reductions will reduce poverty in developing producing countries Estimates of the magnitude of the impact of subsidies on the global pattern of cotton production, world market prices and cotton trade vary due to the range of assumptions used by different studies.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 8 November to 8 December 2004 to estimate the main meher season cereal and pulse production; review the final estimates of the 2003 meher and 2004 secondary belg season harvests; forecast the 2005 belg season production; assess the overall food supply situation; and estimate cereal import requirements, including food aid needs, for the 2005 marketing year (January/December). Accompanied by...

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission visited Eritrea from 15 November to 3 December 2004 to estimate the 2004 main season harvest, assess the overall food supply situation and forecast import requirements for 2005, including food assistance needs.

The GIEWS Updates are issued by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) from mid-2004. The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings, as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries, at both national and sub-national levels.