In this paper, the possibility of nonlinear dynamic adjustment in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. Threshold vector error correction models are employed to test for linearity in the adjustment of prices of sugar and oil, ethanol and oil and ethanol and sugar. Strong evidence of threshold type nonlinearity is found. The results suggest that sugar and oil and ethanol and oil prices are characterised by discrete threshold behaviour,...

Earlier in the year from 12 to 25 March 2005 FAO and WFP conducted a first assessment of food supply and demand in the tsunami affected districts of Aceh Province. The assessment showed that the livelihoods of approximately 600 000 people had been directly affected by the tsunami of 26 December 2004. At the same time rice production was expected to show some 200,000 tonnes surplus for the 2005/06 marketing...

FAO latest forecast for the 2005 world cereal output has been raised considerably since the September report to 2 005 million tonnes, 2.4 percent lower than last year’s record crop. Cereal crops have been satisfactory in most regions, except parts of Africa and South America. Planting of the 2006 cereal crop is underway in the main producing regions under generally favourable conditions so far. However, prospects are uncertain in Southern...

FAO’s forecast of the 2005 world cereal output has been revised slightly downward since the previous report in June. Although lower than the record of 2004, the global cereal crop is still expected to be above the average of the past five years. Output of wheat and coarse grains is set to decline but that of rice is forecast to reach a record high. Most of the anticipated decrease in...

This technical note reviews major developments in the international food aid system and different positions on the effectiveness and impact of food aid. It also attempts to clarify the terminology, definitions and concepts used in discussions on food aid, with a view to improving the process of analysis and to help focus the debate under the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Framework Agreement on Agriculture adopted on 1 August 2004, which...

The July 2004 WTO Framework Agreement foresees a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM), to protect against depressed import prices and import surges for agricultural products, that is available to all developing countries. The SSM would in principle be applicable to all products. However, limits on the number of products for which a country can simultaneously apply additional duty under the SSM could be applied to prevent abuse

This technical note reviews major developments in the international food aid system and different positions on the effectiveness and impact of food aid. It also attempts to clarify the terminology, definitions and concepts used in discussions on food aid, with a view to improving the process of analysis and to help focus the debate under the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Framework Agreement on Agriculture adopted on 1 August 2004, which...