UNFCCC COP27 - Cryosphere Pavilion

06/11/2022 18/11/2022

The program of the COP27 Cryosphere Pavilion included one or more specific focus days for each of the following topics, with targeted side events (six, 90-minute slots per day), including ministerial-level speeches and strong Youth and Indigenous participation:

Implementation to Avert Overshoot: Pathways to Emissions Reductions. This day will focus on those pathways or implementation efforts that present feasible options to prevent global impacts from cryosphere, with a narrowing window for action.

Mountains: Glaciers and Snow: Centuries of Impacts on Water Resources. Mid-latitude glaciers suffer nearly total loss at overshoot above 2°C, but may preserve some basis for re-growth and restoration of water and other ecosystem services at 1.5°C. However, mountain-dependent regions will face many centuries or thousands of years for restoration. Two days will focus exclusively on the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, on which at least 2.5 billion people depend for water-related needs and ecosystem services.

Polar Oceans: Long-tailed Legacy of Acidification, Warming and Freshening. Polar oceans and high latitude seas already show fisheries and shell impacts today because these colder waters absorb CO2 more quickly. Those impacts will be greater still with overshoot of CO2 concentrations above 450ppm. Warming, freshening and invasion by low latitude species all only add stress towards (in worst-case emissions) a mass extinction event.

Ice Sheets: Overshoot Thresholds for Irreversible Sea-level Rise. The WAIS and its collapse will causes 4-6m of sea-level rise over time, and may already have passed that point even today; but chances of slowing or preventing that collapse are far better without overshoot of 1.5°C. In Earth’s past, even 2°C has resulted in 12-20 meters of sea-level rise, potentially triggered by overshoot and that may not be reversible with later Paris implementation.

Permafrost: Centuries of Carbon Emissions from Overshoot. Permafrost carbon emissions drive some degree of global warming. Those emissions are increasing: they are already on the order of Japan’s. Overshoot to 3-4°C will introduce a “permafrost contribution” closer to that of China or the U.S. today, lasting 100-200 years and necessitating generations of negative emissions well after anthropogenic emissions cease.

Absent Arctic Summer Sea Ice: Global Feedbacks. Ice-free summers will still occur within the 1.5°C limit; but with even slight overshoot to 1.7°C, this is projected to become an annual phenomenon. Increasing ice-free summer conditions will cause global feedbacks, including increased permafrost thaw, rising Greenland ice loss and sea-level rise; and damage to Arctic food chains dependent on thick, multi-year ice.

Evening Cultural Events: The Cryosphere Pavilion regularly hosted evening cultural events, pairing for example cryosphere and low-lying nations; and providing an opportunity for both virtual viewing and accredited participants to mingle and find some respite from the negotiations.