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10,000 simulations show warming range of 1.4-3 degrees by 2050

10.04.2012

A study project running almost 10,000 climate simulations on volunteers’ home computers, using a complex atmosphere-ocean climate model, has found that a global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 is ‘equally plausible’ as a rise of 1.4 degrees, if emissions continue unabated. The forecast range is derived from models that accurately reproduce observed temperature changes over the last 50 years. The model used in the project was supplied by the UK Met Office and the work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Union FP6 WATCH and ENSEMBLES projects, the Oxford Martin School, the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, and Microsoft Research.

Photo: (c) Andrea Zeppilli / Flickr