War largely drives food prices to record levels, threatens global food security

At a press briefing today from New York, journalists heard from Boubaker Ben Belhassen, Director of the FAO Markets and Trade Division, who spoke on the Food Price Index update for March.

*The Food Price Index for April shows world food commodity prices slightly decreased.

World food commodity prices reached their highest levels ever, says the March update released today of the FAO Food Price Index, surpassing February's already record-breaking levels. The war in Ukraine and the disruptions to production and trade that have come with it are, to a large extent, driving the shocks to global markets for staple grains and vegetable oils.

The March 2022 Food Price Index was 33.6 percent higher during the same time last year, averaging 159.3 points in March – this is already 12.6 percent higher from February, the latest record-breaking level since the Index’s inception in 1990. FAO also released today its new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, which includes a forecast for global wheat production.

Briefing journalists today was Boubaker Ben Belhassen, Director of the FAO Markets and Trade Division, connecting virtually from Rome. He presented the latest findings and policy implications of this most recent hike in global food prices.

“International food commodity prices are soaring due to a combination of factors: adverse weather, high energy prices and transportation costs, high fertilizer prices, and strong international demand,” Ben Belhassen said, noting that these factors were already driving prices upward before the outset of the war in Ukraine. 

Far-reaching impacts beyond the Black Sea region

Together with providing latest data and analysis on commodity price trends, FAO has been bringing attention to the core areas of risk associated with the escalation and continuation of the war in Ukraine, where FAO is already seeing serious impacts to food production and agriculture-based livelihoods, a key source of income in rural areas. 

Before us is a global food price outlook that threatens food security in countries already battling food crises, many driven by conflict, climate extremes, and the ripple effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“Disruptions to exports due to the conflict in Ukraine have exacerbated an already difficult situation, putting further upward pressure on prices,” Ben Belhassen explained, warning that “soaring food prices erode food affordability and can have serious consequences for food security and nutrition, especially in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries”. 

Higher import bills for the poorest and most at-risk

According to FAO projections and market simulations, the number of undernourished people in the world could increase in 2022/23 by anywhere from 7.6 million to 13.1 million relative to the baseline scenario, as a consequence of the conflict. Price and supply pressure on commodities that are vital to ensuring global food security is disquieting at a time when 720 to 811 million people are already facing hunger. 

Some of the countries with major food crises obtained almost the entirety of their wheat imports in 2021 from both the Russian Federation and Ukraine, such as Somalia (over 90 percent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (over 80 percent), and Madagascar (over 70 percent).

Ben Belhassen therefore stressed the importance of keeping agriculture and food markets and trade open and avoiding export restrictions that can further aggravate the upward pressure on prices, and consequently, reduce the affordability of vital foodstuffs for millions of people. 

About the FAO Food Price Index 

The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016. 

Related links

• Watch the press briefing recording.
• Read more about the FAO Food Prince Index here and access the full updates for the individual cereal, sugar, vegetable oil, meat, and dairy price indexes here.
• Access FAO's latest analysis on the war in Ukraine and its impact on global food security outlooks and markets.
• Tune in to a recent interview with FAO Chief Economist, Máximo Torero, on the war in Ukraine and global food markets.