Very soon bread could be a luxury reserved the rich. A new wheat killing pathogen is making inroads to four of the five largest wheat producing nations in the world and means 90 percent of the world’s wheat is vulnerable. A virulent strain of wheat stem rust fungus named Ug99 has been confirmed in eight countries in Africa and also in the Middle East; crop losses in localized areas have been devastating. The fungus has been confirmed in Iran, which places it at a dangerous crossroads for subsequent spread to the breadbaskets of central and south Asia. Ug99 could destroy 100 percent of infected crops under favorable conditions, and wind patterns are likely to aid its spread. “From wind information the most plausible onward movements would be in north/north-east/east directions,” said David Hodson of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ international focal point for wheat rust disease to MediaGlobal. “So there is potential for movements into the Caucasus, Central Asia and towards South Asia.” Top wheat producers China, India, and Russia stand a chance of seeing Ug99 in their fields soon. The spores spawned by Ug99 and other wheat rusts are approximately the size of red blood cells, and are easily transmitted by natural wind patterns or by human movement. “These are spores that can be picked up in the upper atmosphere and disseminated over thousands of miles,” said Dr. Brian Steffenson, Lieberman-Okinow Chair of Cereal Disease Resistance and Professor of Plant Pathology at the University of Minnesota to MediaGlobal. Steffenson states that there have been previous examples of rust pathogens spreading between continents, with winds transporting African spores as far as Australia and the United States. Ug99 was first documented in Uganda in 1999, the time and place from which the variant was named. Wheat stem rust, a fungus that drains the nutrients from the stalks and seeds, has been an uncommon occurrence in the past 30 years. Cross-breeding of many wheat varieties into a select few super strains had eliminated wheat stem rust as a major threat. However, this loss of biodiversity has become problematic now that widely virulent pathogens like Ug99 have overcome these resistances. “Not only can Ug99 infect a wide number of wheats but it can do so very aggressively and quickly,” said Steffenson. Ug99 represents the beginning of a trend, rather than the exception. More strains have been emerging recently that are overcoming genetic resistances previously considered impregnable. A new strain of yellow (or “stripe” rust has emerged which produces three times the normal amount of spores and can grow under warmer temperatures previously considered unfavorable to the fungus . Different than Ug99, this new strain has been reported in Syria, Iraq, and Turkey as of 2010 with over two million tons of wheat lost, said Hodson. The spread of Ug99 and other rusts in countries of Africa and Middle East presents another problem. These fungal spores could become attached to travelers, aid workers or American servicemen, and make the leap across the Atlantic. “That’s something that we fear greatly,” said Steffenson. “Some people believe that the long distance spread of this rust may be mediated by man.” Wheat rust can be combated with fungicides, but these are often too costly for subsistence farmers who make little to no profit from their harvest. While this could present a problem for farmers in India, China, and the U.S., it could devastate local populations in Africa and the Middle East where it has continued to spread. Many times these measures are too little, too late. “Stem rust is one of the cereal diseases that can cause complete crop failure,” Steffenson said. By the time farmers realize that their crop has been affected, enough damage can be done to put them deeply in debt. Rising populations and increasingly virulent pathogens like Ug99 may mean that bread will become a luxury item in the next few decades in the west. In developing countries, it seems that Ug99 and other wheat killers could even challenge the ability for rural families to survive.

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