FAO.org

This technical note describes the methodology and data used to obtain estimates of rising undernourishment, under three hypothetical scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduction that could materialize based on different forecasts emerging in association with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses optimistic, mild and pessimistic scenarios prospecting a reduction in GDP growth of, respectively, 2, 5 and 10 percentage points (p.p.). First, a GMM model over the 1995–2017 period is used to estimate elasticities of the per capita food supply and GDP growth reduction in low-and middle-income countries. Then, the simulated reduction in food supply [...]

The COVID-19 pandemic poses a substantial risk to agricultural input supply chains. It can detrimentally affect access to and availability of inputs, including seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, as well as labour. As such, disruptions to the supply and demand of inputs will have diverse impacts across and within countries and will need to be reflected in different policy responses depending on the context. This brief presents the policy implications to be considered given the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural input markets and it outlines policy recommendations to mitigate short- and long-run impacts.   

Across the world the COVID-19 crisis is compromising agri-enterprises’ ability to continue business as usual and, in some cases, is threatening the survival of some firms beyond the crisis, particularly small businesses comprised of farm enterprises, traders, food manufacturers, distributors and retailers across food chains. The brief highlights the critical role that these companies play in maintaining functioning food systems during the crisis. Recommendations target a mix of ministries, public institutions, food industry associations, local business service providers and chambers of commerce. Also available in Chinese, Spanish, Arabic, French and Russian.

The FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean and FLAMA will establish a joint strategy to monitor and advertise the activities of regional wholesale markets and supply centres during this period of crisis due to COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this newsletter is to periodically share the main prevention strategies adopted by the wholesale markets and report on their activities and operating conditions to guarantee the food supply since they continue to fulfill their strategic and critical role in the food supply of cities. By delivering objective information and electronic links, we hope that this document can contribute [...]

Africa’s participation in the global market for agri-food products has steadily expanded in the last half century, with exports growing by 4 percent and imports by 6 percent per year. However, exports are comprised mainly of cash crops (cocoa, fruits and nuts, coffee, tea and spices), which have relatively limited markets in Africa, while most agri-food imports are basic food products, such as cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products. The vast majority of imports are sourced from outside the region (e.g. wheat, sunflower oil and dairy products from Europe; rice and palm oil from Asia; maize, poultry and [...]

As COVID-19 reaches a growing number of communities across Africa, governments’ efforts to contain the spread of the virus need to be accompanied by measures to minimize disruptions to the food system. To date, the emerging crisis is viewed primarily through a public health lens (as it should) and only gradually are national strategies, task forces and funds focusing attention on the spill-over economic and food security impacts. There are emerging signs of the negative impact of COVID-19 on the agrifood system, including difficulties in moving food from rural to urban areas, closed markets, rising food prices, loss of livelihoods, [...]

Many countries in the region already resort to adopting standard sets of measures for natural disasters or economic downturns to minimize food insecurity challenges. These include food price monitoring, food stock inventory assessments, but in other cases price controls and building up of strategic food stocks. Efforts are being undertaken to minimize logistics challenges by reducing or eliminating direct and indirect trade barriers and transportation costs. Other countries are implementing export restrictions to ensure local food availability. Finally, some countries expand safety nets and social protection systems if resources are available.

COVID-19 poses significant challenges to an already strained rural context in Africa. The growing direct impact of COVID-19 is affecting health, in terms of morbidity and mortality, as well as quickly overburdening health care services with negative repercussions for non-COVID related health problems, but even before COVID-19 had spread in Africa, the socio economic impact was felt. The sharp decline in demand and production from the most economically developed countries where contagion had initially hit hardest—China, EU and the USA—has caused a global recession, with direct repercussions in Africa. With the spread of the virus in the continent, containment measures, [...]

A comparison of the Great Lockdown of 2020 underway with the Great Recession of 2009, reveals some regularities, yet many differences. Notably, the shock associated with the Great Recession arose out of economy-wide stress, particularly high-income countries, while in direct contrast, the Great Lockdown was borne outside of the global economic system, and seemingly is set to leave most countries severely affected, high and low-income countries alike. Both crises, however, have led to similar impacts to economies throughout the world, with significant contractions to economic growth, economic activity and employment. For global food and agriculture, the Great Recession unfolded as a [...]

According to the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), cereal production in 2019 and the estimated closing stock in 2019/20 are both near record highs and supplies in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and around the world are estimated to be sufficient. As a result, global cereal markets are expected to remain balanced and comfortable despite worries over the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, localized disruptions, largely due to logistical issues, have caused some snarls in food distribution systems and food supply chains in some domestic markets. Though the anticipated duration and magnitude of these disruptions are unlikely [...]